Studies
Original data work. Every one states its sample, its date range and its method on the page.
A -1 Run Line Pushes 15 Percent Of The Time, And Almost Nothing Clears What It
Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. A -1 run line gives the money back when the favorite wins by exactly one, which happened in 338 of …
The Push Is The Product: 27.27 Percent Of 2026 MLB Games Are One Run Games
Everybody knows the run line as -1.5. Lay a run and a half, get plus money, lose the ticket when your team wins 4 to 3. It is th…
Baseball Totals Land On Odd Numbers 57.87 Percent Of The Time
Every totals market gives you a choice you rarely think about. You can take 7.5 or you can take 8. The half run costs about fift…
A Team Total Under 4.5 Hits 58 Percent Of The Time, Until You Check Who Is Pit
American Family Field in Milwaukee, home of the 1.97 ERA that put this question on the board. Photo: DiscoA340, CC BY-SA 4.0, vi…
A Team Total Under Is Only 59 Percent Starting Pitcher
A team total under is sold as the cleanest pitcher bet in baseball. One lineup, one number, and the guy on the mound is the whol…
Six Straight Overs In A Season Series Predicts Nothing, And The Long Streaks F
Target Field in Minneapolis, where Minnesota and Detroit put up 12, 17 and 17 combined runs in three days at the end of August. …
When Form And Record Disagree It Is A Coin Flip
A club is 9-1 in its last ten and averaging better than five runs a night. Across the field is a team eleven games better in the…
Better Teams Win More Often. They Do Not Win By More.
The advice is everywhere and it sounds like common sense. If you like a good team against a bad one, do not pay the moneyline, l…
The Bullpen Tax On A Team Total Under
Every team total under is sold to you as a bet on a starting pitcher. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has held opponents to three runs or few…
Five Unders On One Night Is Not One Bet
Somebody builds a card with five unders on it and the reply writes itself. You are not making five bets, you are making one bet …
What The Push Buys At Sutter Health Park
The Athletics host the Twins in Sacramento tonight and there are two ways to buy the same opinion. The main number is 10.5 and t…
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Why lines move
What moves a number after it opens, who moves it, and which explanations do not survive contact with the data.
Bet types and situational edges
What each bet type actually costs, and which situational angles hold up.