Betting market studies
These pages count what actually happened in a named sample. Each one states the sport, the date range, the file or source, and the method on the page. None of them is a pick, a projection or a live number. Read the sport guide first if you need the market mechanics, then the study for the base rate.
Jump to NFL, college football or MLB. Dated daily boards from 2026 sit in the historical archive and are not this library.
Start with these
Four samples that do not depend on tonight's card. Read the method on the page, then the sport guide if you need the market mechanics.
Road dogs at 5.5 covered 61.9 percent. At 6.5 they were even
2,895 NFL games, 2015 through 2025. Closing 5.5 and closing 6.5 are different markets, not a half point of hook.
The cheap hook on a team total is 19.5. The expensive one is 20.5
5,790 team games. Teams finish on 20 seven times as often as on 18.
Home Teams Score 3 Or Fewer 43.2 Percent Of The Time, Short Of -130
2,344 completed 2026 games. The home team scored 3 or fewer 43.2 percent of the time. Fenway Park is 44.0 percent. A team total under 3.5 at -130 needs 56.52 percent.
Totals land on odd numbers 57.87 percent of the time
2,058 games. A whole-number total is a bet on the push, not a rounding choice.
Outgaining by under 50 yards is a coin flip
1,340 FBS games in 2025. A small yardage edge is quoted like evidence. It is not.
NHL
Original samples for this market. The sport guide is NHL betting mechanics.
Dallas Scored On 28.6 Percent Of Its Power Plays, St. Louis Killed 76.7: The Opening Night Numbers
Last season's scoring, special teams, home and road splits, head to head and goalies for Dallas and St. Louis, next to the DraftKings price move from -205 to -185.
NFL
Original samples for this market. The sport guide is NFL betting mechanics.
Road Underdogs Who Close At 5.5 Cover 61.9 Percent. The 6.5s Are 44 And 44
Eleven NFL regular seasons and 2,895 games. Road underdogs who closed at 5.5 covered 61.9 percent of 84 games. Road underdogs who closed at 6.5 were 44 and 44. Measured against Vikings +5.5 and Colts +6.5 at -122.
NFL Road Underdogs Of 1.5 To 2.5 Lose By Exactly 3 More Often Than By 1 And 2 Combined
Eleven NFL regular seasons and 246 road underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 points. They lost by exactly 3 in 19 games and by 1 or 2 in 15, covered +1.5 at 50.4 percent and +2.5 at 53.7. Road teams implied for about 20 points scored 21 or more 49.0 percent of the time. Measured at the Broncos +1.5 and Broncos team total over 20.5.
Super Bowl Teams Are 20-12 In The Next Week 1, And The Losers Who Travel Are 4-5
Every Super Bowl participant from the 2009 season through 2024, measured in the following season week 1. Thirty two games: 20-12 straight up, 24 of 32 covering plus 3.5, and 68.75 percent decided by one score. Split by role and venue the picture changes, and the smallest bucket is the one that matte
Moving An NFL Team Total From 18.5 To 19.5 Buys You 1.7 Percent. Moving It To 20.5 Buys You 8.1 More
Eleven NFL regular seasons, 2015 through 2025, and 5,790 team games. A team finishes on 18 points 1.0 percent of the time and on 20 points 7.2 percent of the time, so the half points on a team total are not worth the same. Measured at the two team totals on the Sunday card, Cardinals under 18.5 and Cowboys over 25.5.
College football
Original samples for this market. The sport guide is College football betting mechanics.
Pitt Allows 2.25 Yards A Carry To FBS Teams, Virginia Tech Allows 3.74
Rushing per carry against FBS opponents only for Pitt and Virginia Tech, both 4 and 0, next to the DraftKings move from Virginia Tech -5.5 to -2.5.
Half Of The 3 Point Margins Are Already Yours: The Directional Correction Nobody Applies When Buying Through 3
In the 135 games of the 2025 FBS season that closed with a spread of 1 to 3, a margin of exactly 3 occurred 18.52 percent of the time, but the favourite won by exactly 3 in only 7.41 percent. A dog buying from +2.5 to +3.5 only converts that second number, which cuts the defensible price for the poi
Garbage Time Is A Myth: Big Fourth Quarter Leads Got Bigger In 2025
Teams leading by 21 or more after three quarters outscored their opponents by 2.41 points in the fourth across 282 team games of the 2025 FBS season. Only 3.2 percent gave back two touchdowns of the lead.
Which Point Is Worth Buying: An 883 Game Key Number Grid Sorted By What The Spread Was
A key number is not a key number everywhere. Across 883 completed 2025 FBS regular season games with a recorded closing spread, a 7 point margin showed up 10.65 percent of the time when the game was priced between 3.5 and 6.5, and 1.52 percent of the time when the favourite was laying 21.5 or more.
Week One Is The Most Lopsided Week In College Football
One in four college football games lands inside a touchdown, but week one is not one of those weeks. Half of the 2025 openers were decided by 21 points or more and only 13.54 percent finished within six.
Beating An FCS Team By 42 Is Worth Something. Beating One By 20 Is Worth Less Than Nothing
Three seasons, 2023 through 2025, and every FBS team whose season opener was a win over a non FBS opponent, 132 of them, scored against what they did in their next game against an FBS team. The 42 point blowouts went 63.2 percent and plus 11.5 a game. The 14 to 27 point wins went 36.8 percent and -10.7. The margin against a cupcake is not noise, but it is not linear either.
Outgaining Your Opponent By Under 50 Yards Is A Coin Flip, And It Gets Quoted Like Evidence
1,340 completed 2025 FBS games with full box scores. The losing team outgained the winner in 286 of them, 21.34 percent. Sorted by the size of the yardage edge, a gap under 50 yards came with a win only 54.87 percent of the time, which is less than home field was worth on its own.
The Under Is A Defense Bet: An 888 Game Grid From The 2025 College Football Season
A bad offense on its own is worth almost nothing to an under. Across all 888 completed 2025 FBS regular season games, teams scoring under 20 a game with a defense allowing 30 or more went under 46 in 34 percent of their games, which is the league baseline. Attach a defense allowing 24 or fewer and i
Houston Outgained Oregon State By 131 Yards, Texas Tech Was Outgained By 120, And Texas Tech Lays 7.5
Houston and Texas Tech both played Oregon State. Houston outgained the Beavers by 131 yards, Texas Tech was outgained by 120, and Texas Tech lays 7.5 tonight. The 2026 box scores behind Houston +7.5.
Cal Runs For 2.8 A Carry Against FBS Teams, Clemson Climbed From 145 Yards To 401
Total yards and rushing in every 2026 game for Clemson and Cal before they meet in Berkeley, FCS game labeled.
Navy Went From -500 To -250 At UAB, And The Per Carry Numbers Did Not Move
Implied probability from the Navy and UAB price move, next to rushing yards per carry from every 2026 game for both teams.
Temple Runs For 5.33 A Carry Against FBS Teams, Army Allowed 5.20
Rushing yards per carry gained and allowed in every 2026 game for Army and Temple before they meet in Philadelphia, FCS games labeled.
LSU Has Allowed 2.76 Yards Per Play To FBS Teams, Ole Miss Has Allowed 6.13: Saturday's College Football Card By Efficiency
Yards per play against FBS opponents only for LSU, Ole Miss, Louisville, SMU, Virginia, West Virginia, Colorado and Northwestern, with FCS games removed. The 2026 box scores behind the September 19 college football card.
Pittsburgh Scored 12 Points On 315 Yards Last Week And Is Laying 10.5 Tonight
Pittsburgh won 12 to 7 on 315 yards and lays 10.5 to Syracuse. Detroit scored 31 in week one and Buffalo allowed 31. The 2026 numbers behind the three tickets on Thursday night, with the box scores they came from.
MLB
Original samples for this market. The sport guide is MLB betting mechanics.
Better Teams Win More Often. They Do Not Win By More.
The stronger club won 53.87 percent straight up but won by two or more on only 39.02 percent of all games, and being a bigger favourite did not change that. Form adds nothing once the record is known.
The Bullpen Tax On A Team Total Under
A starter held them to three runs. The team did not. Six 2026 starters show the gap, and innings per start predicts almost all of it.
Two Aces Move The First Five Under From 50 Percent To 74
Across 2,108 completed 2026 games the combined first five innings total averaged 4.99 runs and finished under 4.5 exactly 50.05 percent of the time. Restrict it to the 432 games where both starters had 15 or more starts and the under rate is 65.7 percent. Where the pair averaged better than a 2.75 E
When Form And Record Disagree It Is A Coin Flip
Across 435 MLB games this season where the hotter club and the better club were different teams, the hot side went 215-220. Form adds nothing once the record is known.
A Debut Starter Allows Exactly League Average, And His Team Still Loses 58 Percent
All 2,199 completed 2026 regular season games through September 10 with both starters listed, 4,398 starting pitcher outings. A man making his first career start allows 4.49 runs against a league average of 4.48, yet his club goes 41.98 percent. The damage is on the other side of the ball, and the worst bucket is not the debut at all.
The First Five Innings Score At The Same Rate As The Whole Game
Across 2,070 MLB games the first five innings scored 0.997 runs an inning against 0.993 for the full game, and a whole number first five total pushes far more often than a whole number full game total. Form adds nothing once the record is known.
In 2026 Home Teams .050 To .099 Better In The Standings Won 54.8 Percent, Short Of The 60.16 Percent That -151 Needs
2,310 completed 2026 MLB games replayed to test home win rates by standings gap and totals by park. Home teams .050 to .099 better won 54.8 percent; PNC Park stayed at 7 runs or fewer 35.5 percent of the time. Measured at the Sep 19 card.
The Biggest Park Effect In Baseball Is Not Coors Field, And It Is Not Close
Across 2,181 completed 2026 games, the Athletics home park adds 3.42 combined runs a game over the same club on the road and lifts the over 9.5 rate by 27.38 points. Coors adds 1.68 and 19.54. The mechanism is runs allowed, not runs scored.
In 2026 A Team Five Or More Wins Hotter Over Its Last Ten Won 53.6 Percent, Less Than A Team One Win Hotter
2,134 games of the 2026 MLB season sorted by last ten record and season record. A five win form edge won 53.6 percent, a .150 season record edge 56.2. Cold teams scored 4 or fewer 59.6 percent. Measured at the Padres ML and White Sox team total under.
In 2026 Petco Park Settled Under 8 At 55.7 Percent, Clearing The 54.55 Percent That -120 Needs
2,325 completed 2026 MLB games. Settled under 8 is 46.3 percent league wide, 55.7 percent at Petco Park and 45.9 percent at Daikin Park. Measured at two Sunday unders posted at 8.
In 2026 A .100 To .199 Record Edge Won 50.6 Percent Of The Time Without An Ace On The Mound And 68.5 With One
1,963 games of the 2026 MLB season sorted by pregame record gap and starter ERA. A .100 to .199 record edge won 54.2 percent overall, 68.5 with a starter under 3.00. Measured at the Brewers, Rays and Padres moneylines and two unders.
In 2026 A Team Scoring Half A Run Less On The Road Scored 4.50 Per Road Game, Right At Its Full Season Average
1,695 road games of the 2026 MLB season tested against each team
A -1 Run Line Pushes 15 Percent Of The Time, And Almost Nothing Clears What It Costs
Every completed 2026 regular season game through September 9, 2,194 of them, measured from the better club side. Favorites win by 2 or more 41.60 percent of the time and win by exactly one run 15.47 percent, which is the push. Sorted by how large the quality gap is, only the top bucket gets past 68
Six Straight Overs In A Season Series Predicts Nothing, And The Long Streaks Flip
Across 1,741 games in the 2026 MLB season that had a prior meeting between the same two clubs, the correlation between the average total of those earlier meetings and the next one is 0.0168 once both clubs season scoring is removed, with a permutation p value of 0.4828. After four or more straight m
Face A Starter With An ERA Under 3.00 And A 2026 Lineup Scores 3 Runs Or Fewer 64.7 Percent Of The Time
All 4,512 team games of the 2026 MLB season sorted by starter ERA tier. Facing a starter under 3.00, lineups scored 3 or fewer 64.7 percent of the time, against 44.7 overall. Measured at the Twins and Athletics team total unders, Rays -1 and Brewers -1.
A Team Total Under 4.5 Hits 58 Percent Of The Time, Until You Check Who Is Pitching
Across 3,716 team games in the 2026 MLB season, a club is held to 4 runs or fewer 58.23 percent of the time. Against a starter carrying a season ERA under 2.50 that figure is 80.10 percent across 196 games, and under 2.00 it is 85.45 percent. A -330 team total under needs 76.74 percent, which only o
A Team Total Under Is Only 59 Percent Starting Pitcher
Across 3,562 starts this season the starting pitcher allowed 58.97 percent of the opponent team total, and a sub 1.00 WHIP starter nearly doubles the under 3.5 hit rate of a 1.45 WHIP starter. Form adds nothing once the record is known.
Baseball Totals Land On Odd Numbers 57.87 Percent Of The Time
Across 2,058 MLB games this season the combined total finished odd 57.87 percent of the time, and the push rate on a whole number total swings from 6.66 to 11.37 percent depending on which number you buy. Form adds nothing once the record is known.
The Push Is The Product: 27.27 Percent Of 2026 MLB Games Are One Run Games
Across 2,138 completed 2026 MLB regular season games, 583 finished by exactly one run. That is what the whole number run line at -1 buys you, and for a .550 team at home the refund lands 19.08 percent of the time.
What The Push Buys At Sutter Health Park
Over 10 at -120 or over 10.5 at -102 in the loudest run environment in baseball. Sixty five home dates say the worse price is the better bet.
Five Unders On One Night Is Not One Bet
The warning says stacking unders on one slate makes them a single bet on a quiet night. Across 4,000 team games in 2026 the same night correlation is minus 0.003.
The 2026 Yankees Score Four Runs 56.6 Percent Of The Time, 59.0 On The Road, And The Break Even Is 56.52
How often the 2026 Yankees score four or more runs: 86 of 152 overall, 46 of 78 on the road, 7 of the last 10, measured against the 56.52 percent break even for a team total over 3.5 at -130 at Arizona.
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Sport guides
How each sport's market is priced, which inputs move it, and the mistakes that recur.