Why lines move
What moves a number after it opens, who moves it, and which explanations do not survive contact with the data.
Betting Market Overreactions
Guide Betting Market Overreactions Betting markets are remarkably efficient at aggregating information and producing accurate pr…
Sharp vs Square Money Explained
Guide Sharp vs Square Money Explained Not every wager carries the same informational weight. This guide explains how different p…
Reverse Line Movement Guide
Guide Reverse Line Movement Explained Sometimes the price moves against the more obvious public narrative. That does not automat…
Betting Market Manipulation Myths
Guide Betting Market Manipulation Myths Every bad beat generates accusations of rigged games. Every surprising line movement spa…
Why Betting Lines Move
Guide Why Betting Lines Move Once an opening line is posted, the number starts changing. These changes are not noise. They are t…
Early Money vs Late Money Explained
Guide Early Money vs Late Money Explained The same betting line means completely different things depending on when it was poste…
Public vs Sharp Betting Behavior
Guide Public vs Sharp Betting Behavior Sports betting markets are shaped by different kinds of participants with different goals…
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How a price is built
A betting price is a probability with a fee on top. These pages take that apart in order.
Studies
Original data work. Every one states its sample, its date range and its method on the page.