A reference desk for betting markets
How a price is built, why it moves, and what the data actually supports. No picks, no tipping record, no handicapper rankings. Every study states its sample, its date range and its method.
Start with the mechanics
Value Betting Explained
Guide Value Betting Explained Value betting is not about sounding smarter than the market. It is about comparing price to probab…
Bookmaker Margin and Vig Explained
Guide Bookmaker Margin and Vig Explained The vigorish is the structural mechanism through which every sportsbook generates reven…
Closing Line Value Explained
Guide Closing Line Value Explained: The Market's Most Reliable Benchmark Closing line value measures whether the price you took …
Why Betting Lines Move
Guide Why Betting Lines Move Once an opening line is posted, the number starts changing. These changes are not noise. They are t…
Betting Market Efficiency
Guide Betting Market Efficiency: Where Markets Are Accurate and Where They're Not Sports betting markets aggregate information f…
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Calculator Bankroll and Kelly staking Kelly sizes a bet to maximise long-run growth. It is optimal only if your probability esti…
The library
How a price is built
A betting price is a probability with a fee on top. These pages take that apart in order.
Why lines move
What moves a number after it opens, who moves it, and which explanations do not survive contact with the data.
Market structure
How the market itself behaves: who makes it, how deep it is, how efficient it is, and where the operator's risk limits
Staking and risk
Sizing a bet, surviving variance, and the part that is about you rather than the market.
Bet types and situational edges
What each bet type actually costs, and which situational angles hold up.
Recent studies
Original data work. Each page names its sample and its range, and none of them is a pick. The full set lives on the studies hub, grouped by NFL, college football and MLB.
Road underdogs at 5.5 covered 61.9 percent. At 6.5 they were 44 and 44
Eleven seasons and 2,895 NFL games. Closing 5.5 and closing 6.5 are not the same bet.
Moving an NFL team total from 18.5 to 19.5 buys 1.7 percent. To 20.5 buys 8.1 more
Eleven seasons and 5,790 NFL team games. Teams finish on 20 seven times as often as on 18.
Baseball totals land on odd numbers 57.87 percent of the time
The half run on a total is not a rounding choice. It is a bet on whether the game can finish on the whole number.
Outgaining your opponent by under 50 yards is a coin flip
1,340 completed 2025 FBS games. A yardage gap under 50 came with a win only 54.87 percent of the time.
A team total under 4.5 hits 58 percent of the time, until you check who is pitching
The headline rate does not survive contact with the starter. The study names the sample and the split.
All 36 studies, by sport
NFL closing lines, college football key numbers, MLB totals and run lines. Crawlable HTML links, not a feed.
It does not sell or publish picks, does not claim a betting record, and does not rank handicappers. There is no live odds feed attached to it, so it never shows a current price. Consensus publishing has been paused since July 2026 and the reason is on the method page.