NFL Betting Guide: Key Numbers, Spreads and Totals
The most efficiently priced market in North American sport. Understanding key numbers and how a half point is priced is most of the edge available.
What actually moves this market
3 and 7 dominate everything
NFL margins cluster on 3 and 7 more than any other number. Moving a spread from -2.5 to -3.5 crosses the single most common margin in the sport, and the price should reflect that far more than a move from -5.5 to -6.5.
Buy the half point that matters, not the one that doesn't
Paying extra to move off 3 is frequently worth it. Paying the same extra to move off 8 usually is not. The value of a half point depends entirely on which number it crosses.
Totals move on weather and pace, not narrative
Wind is the weather variable that reliably moves a football total. Cold on its own does far less than people assume.
The market is thin on Tuesday and deep on Sunday
Early-week NFL numbers carry lower limits and move further on less money. The closing number is the one with real information in it.
Divisional and short-week spots are known
Every situational angle you have read about is in the model. If a spot is well known, it is priced - which does not make it wrong, only unprofitable at face value.
Guides that apply here
NFL picks, with the receipts.
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