The Psychology of Betting: Avoiding Common Traps
January 05, 2026
Check today's consensus picks for actionable opportunities.
January 05, 2026
Check today's consensus picks for actionable opportunities.
Analysis, strategy, and insights for the data-driven sports bettor
Playoffs
The NFL Playoffs are here, and Wild Card Weekend delivers six games packed with betting value. The public is loading up on favorites, but our models see opportunity on the other side. Seattle's 13-3 record looks dominant, but their schedule included the league's easiest stretch in November. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's offense has quietly become the most efficient in the AFC over the last month.
The line movement tells the story. Denver opened -3 against the Chargers and has moved to -4.5 on sharp action. Chicago, under first-year coach Ben Johnson, is getting respect from the market as a 6-point home favorite despite facing a Lions team they beat twice this season. We're breaking down every matchup, every angle, every edge.
Full NFL Playoff Analysis →
The Spurs are 25-9 and Wembanyama is putting up 28.3 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, and 3.8 BPG. Only Hakeem Olajuwon has ever posted those numbers. At +150 for MVP, this is the bet of the year. The transformation in San Antonio is complete.
Nathan MacKinnon is on pace for 145 points. Cale Makar is playing Norris-level defense. The Avs are outscoring opponents 4.1-2.3 per game. At -200 to win the Cup, they're the most dominant team the NHL has seen since the 1970s Canadiens.
The difference between -110 and -105 is real money. Over 1,000 bets at $100 each, that's $2,380 in your pocket. We break down the best sportsbooks for NFL, NBA, and NHL, and show you how to set up accounts at multiple books for maximum value.
The Spurs, Rockets, and Thunder lead the West. The Knicks and Cavaliers control the East. But the real story is Boston without Tatum - they're 21-12 and Jaylen Brown is averaging 31 PPG. Here's our updated futures outlook and the best value plays.
The #1 overall pick is living up to the hype. Celebrini's 52 points through 40 games puts him on pace for 107 points - the best rookie season since Crosby. The Sharks are 20-17-3 and actually competing. San Jose's rebuild is ahead of schedule.
You can hit 55% of your bets and still go broke. Bad bankroll management is the #1 killer of sports bettors. We explain the 1-3% rule, flat betting vs. Kelly Criterion, and why chasing losses is the fastest way to zero.
Oregon survived Penn State 38-35. Texas demolished Arizona State 45-17. Notre Dame's defense smothered Georgia 24-10. And Ohio State's offense exploded for 52 points against Tennessee. The semifinals are set, and we've got early lines and analysis.
We hit the OKC Thunder to win the NBA Finals at +800. We nailed the Panthers repeat at +450. But we also had some brutal misses - the Chiefs dynasty finally crumbled. Here's our honest look back at what worked, what didn't, and what we learned.
The trade from New Orleans has worked perfectly. Ingram is averaging 25.4 PPG, Scottie Barnes is developing into an All-Star, and RJ Barrett is thriving as the third option. Toronto is 20-15 and firmly in the playoff hunt. Don't sleep on the North.
The blockbuster trade is paying off. KD is averaging 27.8 PPG, Jalen Green has taken a leap, and Alperen Sengun is a top-10 center. At 21-10, Houston is the most dangerous team in the West. Their +8.4 point differential leads the conference.
Vanderbilt is 10-0 for the first time since 1993. First-year coach Mark Byington has transformed the Commodores into SEC contenders. Tonight they visit Penny Hardaway's struggling Memphis Tigers (4-5) as 3.5-point favorites.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown made history this season. The Bulls (-4) face Old Dominion in the Cure Bowl at 5 PM ET. Meanwhile, Delaware makes their first-ever FBS bowl appearance vs Louisiana at 8:30 PM.
Donovan Mitchell is averaging 33.0 PPG this month with Evan Mobley out (calf). The Cavaliers (15-12) are 6-0 vs Central Division teams and visit the injury-depleted Bulls tonight as 5.5-point favorites.
Bowl season kicks off tonight with the Sun Belt's Troy Trojans (9-4) facing FBS newcomer Jacksonville State (8-4). Troy is a touchdown favorite and 62% of the public is backing them. The over/under of 52 points suggests a fast-paced affair.
Kevin Durant's trade to Houston has transformed the Rockets into Western Conference favorites. The 16-6 record speaks for itself, and tonight's showdown at Denver (18-6) could be a playoff preview.
Florida (16-13-2) heads to Tampa Bay (18-11-3) in the heated I-4 rivalry. The Panthers are the reigning back-to-back Stanley Cup champs but haven't dominated the regular season. Lightning favored at -130.
Despite Tyler Seguin's season-ending injury, the Stars have the NHL's best record. Jake Oettinger is playing like a Vezina candidate, and the depth scoring has been remarkable. They're legitimate Cup favorites.
Dallas went from NBA Finals to disaster. At 10-16, the Mavericks are a .500 team at best, with Luka shouldering too much burden. Defensive lapses and chemistry issues have plagued them all season.
The Clippers' new arena is state-of-the-art, but the product on the court is rebuilding-level. At 6-19, LA is starting over after Kawhi Leonard and Paul George departed. Growing pains were expected, but this is ugly.
The 20-year-old became the youngest player in franchise history to reach 100 career points. Now he's on pace for over 100 points this season. Anaheim's rebuild is ahead of schedule.
The Stars received devastating news—Tyler Seguin tore his ACL and is done for the year. Despite 107 man-games lost to injury, Dallas still has the NHL's second-best record. Can they survive without another key piece?
The 19-year-old phenom joins Gretzky, Crosby, and Lemieux as the only teenagers to reach 40 points in 27 games. Tonight, he faces the man chasing The Great One's all-time record. History meets the future.
Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury has rippled through the NBA betting market. The Celtics went from title favorites to fringe contenders overnight. Here's how to adjust your futures and game-by-game approach.
The CFP picture is nearly set, and conference championship lines are already moving. We've identified three spots where early money has created value for patient bettors.
Alex Ovechkin is closing in on Gretzky's all-time goal record. Here's how to find value in goal scorer props and when to bet on The Great Eight to make history.
The Thanksgiving slate delivered drama and data. Detroit's dominance, Dallas's decline, and Baltimore's resurgence all have implications for the rest of the season.
Sharp bettors fade the public—except when they don't. Our data shows there are specific situations where public consensus actually identifies value. Here's how to spot them.
You can have the best picks in the world and still go broke. Proper bankroll management is the foundation of profitable betting. Here's our unit-based approach.