Navy Went From -500 To -250 At UAB. The Box Scores Say Navy Runs For 6.8 A Carry And UAB Allows 4.7
Navy opened as an 11.5 point favorite at UAB. By Friday afternoon it was 6.5. That's five points of movement in a conference game between two teams with two wins between them, and it's worth asking what the box scores say about it before deciding whether the market got smarter or just got spooked.
What the price move means in probability
Every moneyline carries an implied win probability. Converting the DraftKings numbers from ESPN's odds feed, before the bookmaker's margin is removed:
| Price | Navy moneyline | Implied Navy win | UAB moneyline | Implied UAB win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | -500 | 83.3% | +380 | 20.8% |
| Friday | -250 | 71.4% | +205 | 32.8% |
So the market took about twelve points of win probability away from Navy between the open and kickoff. The spread went from Navy -11.5 to -6.5 and the total dropped from 53.5 to 50.5. ESPN's own matchup predictor still makes Navy a 73.4 percent favorite, which sits just above the Friday price.
The per carry numbers
This game is about one thing. Navy runs the option, and it ran 110 times in its first two games while throwing 29 passes. Here's every 2026 game for both teams, per carry, from ESPN box scores.
| Game | Result | Rush yards | Carries | Per carry | Allowed | Allowed per carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy vs Towson (FCS) | W 42 to 15 | 506 | 73 | 6.93 | 39 on 20 | 1.95 |
| Navy at Florida Atlantic | L 38 to 30 | 246 | 37 | 6.65 | -8 on 45 | -0.18 |
| UAB at Illinois | L 42 to 23 | 194 | 48 | 4.04 | 150 on 26 | 5.77 |
| UAB vs UL Monroe | W 26 to 20 | 266 | 52 | 5.12 | 201 on 43 | 4.67 |
| UAB at Louisiana | L 21 to 14 | 74 | 31 | 2.39 | 225 on 53 | 4.25 |
Navy's rushing number barely moved when it went from an FCS opponent to an FBS road game: 6.93 against Towson, 6.65 at FAU. UAB has allowed 4.72 a carry across all three of its games, and every one of those came against FBS competition. On the other side, UAB's own run game fell to 2.39 a carry at Louisiana last Saturday.
So why did the line move?
The honest answer is that the box scores only explain part of it. Navy lost 38 to 30 at FAU on September 12, and it lost that game through the air. Caden Veltkamp completed 27 of 32 for 386 yards and 5 touchdowns, and Navy turned the ball over twice. A 12.1 yards per attempt performance is the kind of number that moves a market, and ESPN's feed doesn't list any other reason for the move.
The question is whether UAB can repeat it. Ryder Burton is 41 of 72 for 478 yards this season, 6.6 per attempt, with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That's a very different passing profile from what beat Navy in Boca Raton. UAB's total yardage has also gone 413, 381 and 218 across its three games.
Rest
Navy last played September 12 and had an open week. UAB played at Louisiana on Saturday night, September 19, and plays again on Friday. Six days to prepare for the option against thirteen.
The pick
Navy moneyline at -240 for 3 units to win, 7.2 at risk, break even 70.59 percent. Kickoff is 4:00 PM Pacific on ESPN from Protective Stadium in Birmingham. The price move made Navy cheaper without, as far as the box scores show, making UAB any better at stopping the run. It's logged before kickoff on the public BetLegend record at TrustMyRecord and graded there either way.