Temple Runs For 5.33 A Carry Against FBS Teams, Army Allowed 5.20 In Its Only One: The Per Carry Study Behind Army At Temple
When a triple option team comes to town, the first question isn't about the quarterback or the receivers. It's one number: how many yards a carry can the defense hold it to? Army ran 108 times in its first two games and threw 24 passes. Whatever happens at Lincoln Financial Field this afternoon, it's going to happen on the ground.
So this study looks at one thing only, rushing yards per carry, gained and allowed, for every game both teams have played in 2026. It's a small sample, five games total, and two of them came against FCS opponents. The FCS rows are labeled and kept on the chart so you can see how much they inflate the picture.
Every game, per carry
All figures come from the ESPN box score for each game. College football charges sacks as rushing attempts, so a sack drags a team's per carry number down. That matters for Temple, which has thrown the ball more than Army.
| Game | Result | Rush yards | Carries | Per carry | Allowed | Allowed per carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temple vs Rhode Island (FCS) | W 38 to 14 | 227 | 45 | 5.04 | 97 on 30 | 3.23 |
| Temple vs Penn State | L 27 to 9 | 176 | 33 | 5.33 | 148 on 34 | 4.35 |
| Temple at Toledo | L 49 to 48 | 261 | 49 | 5.33 | 107 on 25 | 4.28 |
| Army vs Bryant (FCS) | W 59 to 3 | 569 | 57 | 9.98 | 67 on 30 | 2.23 |
| Army vs South Florida | L 28 to 24 | 219 | 51 | 4.29 | 130 on 25 | 5.20 |
Strip out the FCS games and the picture flips
Against FBS opponents, Temple has run for 437 yards on 82 carries, 5.33 a carry, in both games. It did that against Penn State, not a soft Big Ten draw, and then did it again on the road at Toledo. On the other side of the ball Temple has allowed 255 yards on 59 FBS carries, 4.32 a carry.
Army has one FBS game. In it the Black Knights ran for 4.29 a carry and allowed 5.20. They lost at home by four, and South Florida did it on only 25 carries and 24 minutes of possession. The 569 yard day against Bryant is a real result, but it came against an FCS defense that also let Army average 10 yards a carry, and nobody should price a conference road game off of it.
Put the two FBS lines side by side and Temple has the better per carry number on both sides of the ball. That's not what a 3.5 point road favorite usually looks like.
Where Temple is actually vulnerable
Honesty matters more than a clean story, so here's the other half. Temple's problem this season hasn't been the run at all. Toledo's John Alan Richter completed 36 of 51 passes for 429 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Owls, and Penn State's Rocco Becht was 21 of 27 for 268. That's 697 passing yards allowed in two FBS games.
The question is whether Army can or will exploit it. Cale Hellums has completed 13 of 19 passes this season with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, so he's been efficient when he throws. He just doesn't throw much. If Army's staff used the open week to build a heavier passing plan, this whole study gets weaker.
What the market says
DraftKings opened Army -3 at -110 on both sides, according to the odds feed on ESPN's game page. It's now Army -3.5, with Temple +3.5 at -105 on that same feed and the Army moneyline out to -198 from -155 at the open. ESPN's matchup predictor makes Army a 53.6 percent favorite.
So the money has come in on Army, and the per carry numbers point the other way. When those two disagree in a game built around the run, the half point over a field goal is worth taking.
The pick
Temple +3.5 at -108 for 1 unit to win, 1.08 at risk, break even 51.92 percent. Kickoff is 1:00 PM Pacific on ESPN. It's logged before kickoff on the public BetLegend record at TrustMyRecord and graded there either way.