In 2026 Petco Park Settled Under 8 At 55.7 Percent, Clearing The 54.55 Percent That -120 Needs

Two of Sunday's plays are the same number in different buildings: under 8 at Petco Park, and under 8 at Daikin Park. A whole number total can push, so the fair question is not how often the scoreboard lands at 8 or fewer. It is how often the under wins once you throw out the pushes. That settled rate is what -120 and -105 are actually selling.

The short version: Petco barely clears the 54.55 percent that -120 needs. Daikin does not clear the 51.22 percent that -105 needs. League wide, a settled under 8 is a losing bet at either price.

How the study was built

2,325 completed 2026 regular season games from March 26 through September 19, pulled from the MLB Stats API with final scores and venue names. Combined runs are home plus away. A game with 7 or fewer is an under 8 win. A game with exactly 8 is a push. A game with 9 or more is a loss. Settled under 8 is wins divided by (wins plus losses), pushes removed.

League wide you get 988 unders, 191 pushes and 1,146 overs. Take the pushes off the table and the under is 988 of 2,134, which is 46.3 percent. Break even at -105 is 51.22 percent. Break even at -120 is 54.55 percent. The whole sport does not get there. A park has to do real work.

Petco Park clears -120. Barely.

San Diego's park has 77 finals, 39 games with 7 or fewer runs, 7 games sitting on 8, and an average total of 7.75. Settled under 8 is 39 of 70, 55.7 percent. That is 1.2 points over the 54.55 percent bar at -120. It is also 9.4 points over the league settled rate. The park is the whole edge. If you need a reason to pay juice on an under 8, this is one of the few buildings that actually prints it.

Sunday's Marlins and Padres ticket is that number, at -120 for 2 units. Walker Buehler has a 4.58 ERA in 143.1 innings. Sandy Alcantara has thrown 206 innings and has been hit in September, including 7 earned runs on September 8. The park is carrying this more than the arms. 55.7 percent is not a blowout. It is a park that makes -120 a conversation instead of a donation.

Daikin Park is the league

Houston's park has 80 finals, 34 games with 7 or fewer, 6 games on 8, average total 8.91. Settled under 8 is 34 of 74, 45.9 percent. That is 0.4 points under the league rate and 5.3 points under the 51.22 percent that -105 needs. Paying even a little juice here is asking the starters to beat the building.

Sunday's Braves and Astros ticket is that number, at -105 for 1 unit. Martin Perez has a 3.07 ERA in 137.2 innings. Hunter Brown has a 3.43 ERA in 97 innings. Those lines are why the ticket exists. The park is why it is 1 unit and not 2. If the 2026 Daikin rate holds, you need the arms to move a 45.9 percent event up over 51 percent. That is a pitching bet, not a park bet.

What the base rates say

An under 8 is not a generic baseball bet. At Petco the settled rate has cleared -120 this year. At Daikin it has not cleared -105. League wide it has cleared neither. The two Sunday tickets are the same number on the board and they are not the same bet once you look at where they are being played.