Face A Starter With An ERA Under 3.00 And A 2026 Lineup Scores 3 Runs Or Fewer 64.7 Percent Of The Time
A team total under 3.5 at -151 needs to cash 60.16 percent of the time. At -152 it's 60.32. Across every team game in the 2026 regular season, a lineup has scored three runs or fewer 44.7 percent of the time. So before anyone says a word about tonight's matchups, the two team total unders on Tuesday's card start about 15 points underwater.
The question worth a spreadsheet is what closes that gap. Our answer is the opposing starter, and it closes it faster than you'd guess. We sorted all 4,512 team games this season by the ERA of the pitcher who started against them, then did the same thing for run lines by the ERA of a team's own starter, and measured the eight tickets on the card against the bucket each one lives in.
What we measured
All 2,256 completed regular season games from March 25 through September 14, 2026, which is 4,512 team games. The starting pitcher for each side comes from the MLB Stats API schedule record for that game. Each starter is placed in a tier by his 2026 season ERA as of Tuesday, and only pitchers with at least 60 innings and 10 starts get a tier. Games started by anyone else, openers and short season call ups mostly, sit in their own group of 710 team games.
Sort by the opposing starter and the rates fall like a staircase
| ERA tier of the starter a team faced | Team games | Scored 3 or fewer | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.00 | 558 | 361 | 64.7% |
| 3.00 to 3.74 | 874 | 434 | 49.7% |
| 3.75 to 4.24 | 917 | 409 | 44.6% |
| 4.25 to 4.99 | 688 | 275 | 40.0% |
| 5.00 and up | 765 | 247 | 32.3% |
| All team games | 4,512 | 2,016 | 44.7% |
The staircase is clean, and the step that matters is the first one. Only the top tier clears the price. Face a starter with an ERA under 3.00 and a lineup is held to three or fewer almost two thirds of the time. Drop one tier and it's a coin flip. That 15 point drop between the first and second rows is bigger than any other single step in the table.
Home and road matter less than you'd think, but they matter, and tonight's two unders sit on opposite sides of that split.
| Cut | Team games | Scored 3 or fewer |
|---|---|---|
| Home team facing a starter under 3.00 | 272 | 66.2% |
| Road team facing a starter under 3.00 | 286 | 63.3% |
| Home team facing a starter at 3.75 to 4.24 | 464 | 40.7% |
| Road team facing a starter at 3.75 to 4.24 | 453 | 48.6% |
Measured at the two unders
Minnesota Twins team total under 3.5 at -152. The Twins are at home against Max Fried, whose 2.73 ERA over 99 innings puts him in the top tier. That bucket cashed the under in 66.2 percent of 272 games, about six points clear of the 60.32 break even. Fried's own starts land in the same place: opponents scored three or fewer in 11 of 18, which is 61.1 percent. The Twins themselves push the other way. At Target Field they've been held to three or fewer in only 31 of 76 games, 40.8 percent, so the whole ticket rests on the pitcher tier doing what it's done all year.
Athletics team total under 3.5 at -151. This one's harder. The A's are on the road against Griffin Jax, and his 3.99 ERA puts him in the middle tier, where road teams were held to three or fewer 48.6 percent of the time. The A's have been a little weaker than that on the road, held to three or fewer in 39 of 75, or 52.0 percent. Even so, that's about eight points short of 60.16. On base rates alone this is the ticket on the card that asks the most of the matchup, and it's the one where the specific night has to be different from the average one.
Run lines: the same staircase, and a push in the middle
A -1 run line wins when the team wins by two or more, pushes on a one run win and loses otherwise. So the price has to be judged on the games that don't push. At -170 that break even is 62.96 percent of decided games, and at -180 it's 64.29.
| ERA tier of a team's own starter | Team games | Won | Won by exactly 1 | Won by 2 or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.00 | 558 | 65.2% | 16.3% | 48.9% |
| 3.00 to 3.74 | 874 | 54.2% | 14.3% | 39.9% |
| 3.75 to 4.24 | 917 | 50.4% | 12.9% | 37.5% |
| 4.25 to 4.99 | 688 | 48.7% | 14.1% | 34.6% |
| 5.00 and up | 765 | 41.2% | 14.1% | 27.1% |
Run lines need the matchup, not just one pitcher, so here are the buckets built from both starters.
Tampa Bay Rays -1 at -170. Home teams with a starter at 3.75 to 4.24, which is Jax, facing a starter at 5.00 or worse, which is Jack Perkins at 6.53: 63 games, 33 wins by two or more, 11 pushes and 19 losses. That's 63.5 percent of decided games against a 62.96 break even. It clears, barely, and 63 games is a thin sample, so read that as a fair price rather than a gift.
Milwaukee Brewers -1 at -180. Road teams with a starter under 3.00: 272 games, 134 wins by two or more, 31 pushes and 107 losses, or 55.6 percent of decided games. That's well short of 64.29. Jacob Misiorowski's own starts tell a different story, 15 wins by two or more, 4 pushes and 8 losses, which is 65.2 percent. So the tier says no and the pitcher says yes. The honest read is that a 1.95 ERA is rarer than the tier it sits in, and at 27 starts the pitcher's number isn't noise, but it isn't proof either.
Every ticket against its bucket
| Ticket | Break even | Bucket | Games | Bucket rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins team total under 3.5, -152 | 60.32% | Home team facing starter under 3.00 | 272 | 66.2% |
| Braves and Cubs under 8.5, -110 | 52.38% | Home starter 4.25 to 4.99 against road starter 3.00 to 3.74, 8 runs or fewer | 51 | 56.9% |
| Rays -1, -170 | 62.96% | Home starter 3.75 to 4.24 against 5.00 and up, decided games | 52 | 63.5% |
| Guardians ML, -149 | 59.84% | Home starter 3.00 to 3.74 against an untiered starter | 83 | 62.7% |
| Cardinals ML, -165 | 62.26% | Home starter 3.00 to 3.74 against an untiered starter | 83 | 62.7% |
| Yankees ML, -165 | 62.26% | Road starter under 3.00 against 4.25 to 4.99 | 35 | 60.0% |
| Brewers -1, -180 | 64.29% | Road starter under 3.00, decided games | 241 | 55.6% |
| Athletics team total under 3.5, -151 | 60.16% | Road team facing starter 3.75 to 4.24 | 453 | 48.6% |
Five of the eight sit above their break even on bucket alone, and the strongest by a distance is the Twins under. Guardians and Cardinals share a bucket because both face a pitcher who hasn't made enough starts to earn a tier: Chicago is opening with reliever Chris Murphy, and Blade Tidwell has 7 starts and 46.2 innings. The Yankees bucket is only 35 games, too few to lean on in either direction. The bottom two are where the card is betting that tonight's specific matchup beats the average one, and that's a bet you should know you're making.
What this study does not tell you
It uses each starter's season ERA as of Tuesday, which includes the games being measured, so the tiers know a little more than anyone knew on the day. It doesn't see bullpens, and that matters tonight: Jax and Fried have both been pulled early often enough that the last four innings belong to someone else. It doesn't see parks, lineups or weather. Base rates set the bar. The matchup has to clear it.
Fact manifest
- 2,256 completed 2026 regular season games from March 25 through September 14, 4,512 team games, with the listed starting pitcher for each side
- MLB Stats API schedule endpoint, gameType R, three date ranges hydrated with probablePitcher, final scores only, pulled September 15, 2026
- Season ERA, innings and games started for 853 pitchers, used to place starters in tiers with a floor of 60 innings and 10 starts
- MLB Stats API season pitching stats, playerPool ALL, 2026, pulled September 15, 2026
- Tier tables: scored 3 or fewer by opposing starter tier, and won, won by exactly 1 and won by 2 or more by own starter tier, with home and road cuts and the eight ticket buckets
- Computed this session from the two pulls above
- Tuesday's probable starters: Griffin Jax against Jack Perkins, Max Fried against Bailey Ober, Andre Pallante against Blade Tidwell, Foster Griffin against Chris Murphy, Jacob Misiorowski against Lake Bachar, Kevin Gausman against Martín Pérez
- MLB Stats API schedule endpoint for 2026-09-15 hydrated with probablePitcher, pulled September 15, 2026
- Max Fried 2.73 ERA in 99 innings, opponents scored 3 or fewer in 11 of his 18 starts; Jacob Misiorowski 1.95 ERA, Milwaukee won 15 of his 27 starts by two or more with 4 one run wins and 8 losses; Jack Perkins 6.53 ERA; Griffin Jax 3.99 ERA
- MLB Stats API season stats and 2026 game logs for each pitcher, joined to final scores by game id this session
- Athletics held to 3 or fewer in 39 of 75 road games; Twins held to 3 or fewer in 31 of 76 home games
- Computed this session from the 2026 final scores pull
- Ticket prices: Rays -1 -170, Brewers -1 -180, Athletics team total under 3.5 -151, Twins team total under 3.5 -152, Cardinals ML -165, Yankees ML -165, Guardians ML -149, Braves and Cubs under 8.5 -110
- BetLegend card for September 15, 2026, as entered on the BetLegend Picks Tracker
Method: a team game counts as scored 3 or fewer when that team's final run total was 3 or lower, extra innings included. Break even for a laying price is price divided by price plus 100. For a -1 run line, one run wins are pushes and are removed before the rate is taken. Tier placement uses season ERA with at least 60 innings and 10 starts; every other starter is untiered. First pitches on Tuesday run from 3:40 PM to 4:45 PM Pacific.