Dallas Scored On 28.6 Percent Of Its Power Plays Last Season. St. Louis Killed 76.7 Percent. They Open Tonight
Both teams are 0, 0 and 0. Opening night in Dallas means there's no 2026 to 27 sample yet, so the honest evidence is last season's full 82 games, the injury report and the price. Here's all three.
What the price move means in probability
DraftKings numbers from ESPN's odds feed, read the morning of the game, converted to implied probability before the bookmaker's margin is removed:
| Price | Dallas moneyline | Implied Dallas win | St. Louis moneyline | Implied St. Louis win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | -205 | 67.2% | +170 | 37.0% |
| Friday morning | -185 | 64.9% | +154 | 39.4% |
The market has taken a little more than two points of win probability away from Dallas since the open. The total is 5.5 with the over at -135, up from -120.
Last season, side by side
| 2025 to 26 regular season | Dallas | St. Louis |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 50, 20, 12 | 37, 33, 12 |
| Points | 112 | 86 |
| Goal differential | +53 | -27 |
| Goals for per game | 3.33 | 2.80 |
| Goals against per game | 2.71 | 3.10 |
| Power play | 28.6% | 17.6% |
| Penalty kill | 80.3% | 76.7% |
| Shots for per game | 25.3 | 25.3 |
| Shots against per game | 26.2 | 27.7 |
| Dallas at home, St. Louis on the road | 26, 11, 4 | 17, 19, 5 |
The shot volume is identical, 25.3 a game for each team. The gap is what happened with the extra man. Dallas converted 28.6 percent of its power plays and St. Louis killed 76.7 percent of the ones it faced, the widest mismatch on this page. At even strength these two put pucks on net at the same rate.
Head to head last season
| Date | Game | Final |
|---|---|---|
| October 18, 2025 | Dallas at St. Louis | St. Louis 3, Dallas 1 |
| January 23, 2026 | St. Louis at Dallas | Dallas 3, St. Louis 2 |
| January 27, 2026 | Dallas at St. Louis | Dallas 4, St. Louis 3 |
| February 4, 2026 | St. Louis at Dallas | Dallas 5, St. Louis 4 |
Dallas won three of four, all four were decided in regulation, and each Dallas win came by one goal. Both meetings in Dallas went to the Stars.
The goalies, and the case against
| Expected starter | Starts | W, L | Save pct | GAA | Shutouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger, Dallas | 54 | 35, 12 | .899 | 2.59 | 4 |
| Joel Hofer, St. Louis | 43 | 24, 13 | .910 | 2.61 | 6 |
This is the part that cuts the other way. Hofer stopped a higher share of shots than Oettinger did last season. Dallas also opens with Matt Duchene on injured reserve with a lower body injury. St. Louis lists Tyler Tucker, Logan Mailloux and Felix Trudeau on injured reserve. One hockey game is noisy, and a hot goalie can erase every number on this page.
The pick
Dallas Stars moneyline at -180 for 2 units to win, 3.6 at risk, break even 64.29 percent. Puck drop is 6:00 PM Pacific on TNT and truTV from American Airlines Center. The price move made Dallas cheaper without changing what last season's special teams numbers say about this matchup. It's logged before puck drop on the public BetLegend record at TrustMyRecord and graded there either way.
Sources: team summary, goalie summary, standings splits and the 2025 to 26 schedule from the NHL stats API (api.nhle.com and api-web.nhle.com); odds, probable goalies and injuries from ESPN's public API, read October 2, 2026, 9:00 AM Pacific.