Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
12-5
@
Denver Broncos
14-3
Denver Broncos
Saturday, Jan 17 | 09:30 PM ET | Empower Field at Mile High | CBS
SpreadDEN +5.5
TotalO/U 41.5
MLDEN +210

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

I've crunched the numbers. I've been breaking down the Buffalo Bills-Denver Broncos matchup all week. Buffalo Bills sits at 12-5 while Denver Broncos is 14-3 heading into this crucial contest. Denver Broncos as a home dog at +5.5? That immediately catches my eye. The market is telling us something.

You have to consider Denver Broncos is averaging 25.8 points per game with a defense allowing 21.0 PPG. Buffalo Bills counters with 26.8 PPG and a 21.9 PPG defensive mark. The total of 41.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 52.6 PPG.

I mean, The betting trends are clear: Denver Broncos covers consistently (8-6 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. I like this a lot.

Home Field
Denver Broncos is 4-1 at home this season
Records
Denver Broncos: 14-3 | Buffalo Bills: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Denver Broncos allows 22.6 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Denver Broncos +5.5, sharp action noted
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
12-5
@
Seattle Seahawks
14-3
Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, Jan 18 | 01:00 AM ET | Lumen Field | FOX
SpreadSEA -2.5
TotalO/U 47.5
MLSEA -155

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

The numbers are screaming at us. The NFL Week 16 slate features San Francisco 49ers (12-5) traveling to Lumen Field where Seattle Seahawks (14-3) waits. This game matters. Seattle Seahawks is just a 2.5-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

I keep coming back to Seattle Seahawks is averaging 25.4 points per game with a defense allowing 21.1 PPG. San Francisco 49ers counters with 27.5 PPG and a 23.1 PPG defensive mark. The total of 47.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 52.9 PPG.

at the end of the day, Seattle Seahawks is 8-5 ATS this season and 3-2 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. This is a gift from the market.

Home Field
Seattle Seahawks is 4-2 at home this season
Records
Seattle Seahawks: 14-3 | San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Seattle Seahawks allows 18.2 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Seattle Seahawks -2.5, sharp action noted
Houston Texans
Houston Texans
12-5
@
New England Patriots
14-3
New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan 18 | 08:00 PM ET | Gillette Stadium | ESPN
SpreadNE +5.5
TotalO/U 41.5
MLNE +210

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Here's why I'm confident: I've been breaking down the Houston Texans-New England Patriots matchup all week. Houston Texans sits at 12-5 while New England Patriots is 14-3 heading into this crucial contest. New England Patriots as a home dog at +5.5? That immediately catches my eye. The market is telling us something.

Factor this in: The yardage tells a story - New England Patriots gains 350 per game while Houston Texans sits at 354. When you factor in defensive efficiency, New England Patriots has the edge. The total of 41.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 48.5 PPG.

at the end of the day, New England Patriots is 6-5 ATS this season and 4-2 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. Give me this side all day.

Home Field
New England Patriots is 7-2 at home this season
Records
New England Patriots: 14-3 | Houston Texans: 12-5
Scoring Defense
New England Patriots allows 18.7 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened New England Patriots +5.5, sharp action noted
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams
12-5
@
Chicago Bears
11-6
Chicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 18 | 11:30 PM ET | Soldier Field | NBC
SpreadCHI -2.5
TotalO/U 47.5
MLCHI -155

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

Let me be real - Los Angeles Rams (12-5) heads to Soldier Field to take on Chicago Bears (11-6) in what shapes up as a pivotal Week 16 matchup. Chicago Bears is just a 2.5-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

It's worth noting Offensively, we're looking at 21.9 vs 23.4 PPG. Defensively, Chicago Bears gives up 24.9 while Los Angeles Rams allows 22.7. The matchup favors Chicago Bears.

honestly, The betting trends are clear: Chicago Bears covers consistently (7-5 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. This is a gift from the market.

Home Field
Chicago Bears is 6-1 at home this season
Records
Chicago Bears: 11-6 | Los Angeles Rams: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Chicago Bears allows 19.3 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Chicago Bears -2.5, sharp action noted

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