San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
12-5
@
Philadelphia Eagles
11-6
Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, Jan 11 | 09:30 PM ET | Lincoln Financial Field | FOX
SpreadPHI -4.5
TotalO/U 43.5
MLPHI -280

San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles

I've watched the tape. I've been breaking down the San Francisco 49ers-Philadelphia Eagles matchup all week. San Francisco 49ers sits at 12-5 while Philadelphia Eagles is 11-6 heading into this crucial contest. Philadelphia Eagles is just a 4.5-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

Now, Philadelphia Eagles is averaging 20.8 points per game with a defense allowing 23.8 PPG. San Francisco 49ers counters with 25.4 PPG and a 21.2 PPG defensive mark.

I mean, Philadelphia Eagles is 8-4 ATS this season and 3-1 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. The numbers support it.

Home Field
Philadelphia Eagles is 4-1 at home this season
Records
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6 | San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Philadelphia Eagles allows 18.4 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Philadelphia Eagles -4.5, sharp action noted
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
12-5
@
Jacksonville Jaguars
13-4
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, Jan 11 | 06:00 PM ET | EverBank Stadium | CBS

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

This line doesn't make sense. This Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars game has my attention. At 12-5 and 13-4 respectively, both teams have a lot riding on this one.

But here's the thing - The yardage tells a story - Jacksonville Jaguars gains 353 per game while Buffalo Bills sits at 371. When you factor in defensive efficiency, Buffalo Bills has the edge.

simply put, Jacksonville Jaguars is 6-6 ATS this season and 5-2 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. This is the play.

Home Field
Jacksonville Jaguars is 6-1 at home this season
Records
Jacksonville Jaguars: 13-4 | Buffalo Bills: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Jacksonville Jaguars allows 19.6 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Jacksonville Jaguars , sharp action noted
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
11-6
@
New England Patriots
14-3
New England Patriots
Monday, Jan 12 | 01:15 AM ET | Gillette Stadium | NBC
SpreadNE -3.5
TotalO/U 45.5
MLNE -205

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots

The value here is obvious. This Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots game has my attention. At 11-6 and 14-3 respectively, both teams have a lot riding on this one. New England Patriots is just a 3.5-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

I keep coming back to The yardage tells a story - New England Patriots gains 346 per game while Los Angeles Chargers sits at 339. When you factor in defensive efficiency, Los Angeles Chargers has the edge. The total of 45.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 50.6 PPG.

realistically, ATS records matter. New England Patriots at 5-6 against the spread. Los Angeles Chargers is 5-4. The value is clear. This is the play.

Home Field
New England Patriots is 5-2 at home this season
Records
New England Patriots: 14-3 | Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6
Scoring Defense
New England Patriots allows 18.6 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened New England Patriots -3.5, sharp action noted
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams
12-5
@
Carolina Panthers
8-9
Carolina Panthers
Saturday, Jan 10 | 09:30 PM ET | Bank of America Stadium | FOX

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers

The data doesn't lie. I've been breaking down the Los Angeles Rams-Carolina Panthers matchup all week. Los Angeles Rams sits at 12-5 while Carolina Panthers is 8-9 heading into this crucial contest.

Now, Carolina Panthers is averaging 22.9 points per game with a defense allowing 24.1 PPG. Los Angeles Rams counters with 22.6 PPG and a 23.8 PPG defensive mark.

let's be honest, The betting trends are clear: Carolina Panthers covers consistently (5-5 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. This line is off.

Home Field
Carolina Panthers is 5-1 at home this season
Records
Carolina Panthers: 8-9 | Los Angeles Rams: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Carolina Panthers allows 23.1 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Carolina Panthers , sharp action noted
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
9-7-1
@
Chicago Bears
11-6
Chicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 11 | 01:00 AM ET | Soldier Field | Prime Video

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

This is one of my favorite spots. The NFL Week 16 slate features Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) traveling to Soldier Field where Chicago Bears (11-6) waits. This game matters.

Here's what I'm seeing: Chicago Bears is averaging 22.5 points per game with a defense allowing 22.0 PPG. Green Bay Packers counters with 24.6 PPG and a 18.6 PPG defensive mark.

simply put, ATS records matter. Chicago Bears at 8-6 against the spread. Green Bay Packers is 6-4. The value is clear. This line is off.

Home Field
Chicago Bears is 4-1 at home this season
Records
Chicago Bears: 11-6 | Green Bay Packers: 9-7-1
Scoring Defense
Chicago Bears allows 23.7 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Chicago Bears , sharp action noted
Houston Texans
Houston Texans
12-5
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tuesday, Jan 13 | 01:15 AM ET | Acrisure Stadium | ESPN
SpreadPIT +3.0
TotalO/U 38.5
MLPIT +130

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The sharps are all over this. The NFL Week 16 slate features Houston Texans (12-5) traveling to Acrisure Stadium where Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) waits. This game matters. Pittsburgh Steelers as a home dog at +3.0? That immediately catches my eye. The market is telling us something.

But here's the thing - Pittsburgh Steelers is averaging 23.0 points per game with a defense allowing 25.9 PPG. Houston Texans counters with 21.5 PPG and a 21.0 PPG defensive mark. The total of 38.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 44.5 PPG.

I mean, ATS records matter. Pittsburgh Steelers at 9-5 against the spread. Houston Texans is 8-4. The value is clear. Lock it in.

Home Field
Pittsburgh Steelers is 7-3 at home this season
Records
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7 | Houston Texans: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Pittsburgh Steelers allows 21.1 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0, sharp action noted