Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
12-5
@
Denver Broncos
14-3
Denver Broncos
Saturday, Jan 17 | 09:30 PM ET | Empower Field at Mile High | CBS
SpreadDEN -1.5
TotalO/U 45.5
MLDEN -115

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

This is one of my favorite spots. The NFL Week 16 slate features Buffalo Bills (12-5) traveling to Empower Field at Mile High where Denver Broncos (14-3) waits. This game matters. Denver Broncos is just a 1.5-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

It's worth noting Offensively, we're looking at 21.0 vs 26.8 PPG. Defensively, Denver Broncos gives up 23.6 while Buffalo Bills allows 25.5. The matchup favors Buffalo Bills.

realistically, Denver Broncos is 9-3 ATS this season and 4-2 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. This line is off.

Home Field
Denver Broncos is 7-3 at home this season
Records
Denver Broncos: 14-3 | Buffalo Bills: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Denver Broncos allows 18.9 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Denver Broncos -1.5, sharp action noted
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
12-5
@
Seattle Seahawks
14-3
Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, Jan 18 | 01:00 AM ET | Lumen Field | FOX
SpreadSEA -7.0
TotalO/U 45.5
MLSEA -345

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

This line doesn't make sense. The NFL Week 16 slate features San Francisco 49ers (12-5) traveling to Lumen Field where Seattle Seahawks (14-3) waits. This game matters. With Seattle Seahawks laying 7.0 at home, this feels like the right number. Not too many, not too few.

It's worth noting Offensively, we're looking at 20.8 vs 25.0 PPG. Defensively, Seattle Seahawks gives up 18.6 while San Francisco 49ers allows 25.1. The matchup favors San Francisco 49ers.

honestly, Seattle Seahawks is 7-6 ATS this season and 5-3 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. This is a gift from the market.

Home Field
Seattle Seahawks is 5-3 at home this season
Records
Seattle Seahawks: 14-3 | San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Seattle Seahawks allows 19.7 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Seattle Seahawks -7.0, sharp action noted
Houston Texans
Houston Texans
12-5
@
New England Patriots
14-3
New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan 18 | 08:00 PM ET | Gillette Stadium | ESPN
SpreadNE -3.0
TotalO/U 40.5
MLNE -175

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Look, This Houston Texans at New England Patriots game has my attention. At 12-5 and 14-3 respectively, both teams have a lot riding on this one. New England Patriots is just a 3.0-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

The key factor is The yardage tells a story - New England Patriots gains 350 per game while Houston Texans sits at 365. When you factor in defensive efficiency, New England Patriots has the edge.

I mean, ATS records matter. New England Patriots at 7-5 against the spread. Houston Texans is 4-4. The value is clear. This line is off.

Home Field
New England Patriots is 5-1 at home this season
Records
New England Patriots: 14-3 | Houston Texans: 12-5
Scoring Defense
New England Patriots allows 19.4 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened New England Patriots -3.0, sharp action noted
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams
12-5
@
Chicago Bears
11-6
Chicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 18 | 11:30 PM ET | Soldier Field | NBC
SpreadCHI +3.5
TotalO/U 48.5
MLCHI +164

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

I've watched the tape. Los Angeles Rams (12-5) heads to Soldier Field to take on Chicago Bears (11-6) in what shapes up as a pivotal Week 16 matchup. Chicago Bears as a home dog at +3.5? That immediately catches my eye. The market is telling us something.

On top of that, The yardage tells a story - Chicago Bears gains 334 per game while Los Angeles Rams sits at 354. When you factor in defensive efficiency, Chicago Bears has the edge.

look, ATS records matter. Chicago Bears at 8-3 against the spread. Los Angeles Rams is 5-6. The value is clear. Lock it in.

Home Field
Chicago Bears is 6-1 at home this season
Records
Chicago Bears: 11-6 | Los Angeles Rams: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Chicago Bears allows 20.5 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Chicago Bears +3.5, sharp action noted