Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
12-5
@
Denver Broncos
14-3
Denver Broncos
Saturday, Jan 17 | 09:30 PM ET | Empower Field at Mile High | CBS
SpreadDEN -1.5
TotalO/U 45.5
MLDEN -115

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Here's what the market is missing: This Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos game has my attention. At 12-5 and 14-3 respectively, both teams have a lot riding on this one. Denver Broncos is just a 1.5-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

But here's the thing - The yardage tells a story - Denver Broncos gains 367 per game while Buffalo Bills sits at 332. When you factor in defensive efficiency, Denver Broncos has the edge.

honestly, ATS records matter. Denver Broncos at 8-5 against the spread. Buffalo Bills is 6-6. The value is clear. Let's ride.

Home Field
Denver Broncos is 6-2 at home this season
Records
Denver Broncos: 14-3 | Buffalo Bills: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Denver Broncos allows 23.8 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Denver Broncos -1.5, sharp action noted
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
12-5
@
Seattle Seahawks
14-3
Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, Jan 18 | 01:00 AM ET | Lumen Field | FOX
SpreadSEA -7.0
TotalO/U 44.5
MLSEA -340

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

The numbers are screaming at us. The NFL Week 16 slate features San Francisco 49ers (12-5) traveling to Lumen Field where Seattle Seahawks (14-3) waits. This game matters. With Seattle Seahawks laying 7.0 at home, this feels like the right number. Not too many, not too few.

The real story is Offensively, we're looking at 27.9 vs 26.2 PPG. Defensively, Seattle Seahawks gives up 24.0 while San Francisco 49ers allows 24.7. The matchup favors Seattle Seahawks. The total of 44.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 54.1 PPG.

I mean, ATS records matter. Seattle Seahawks at 7-3 against the spread. San Francisco 49ers is 8-5. The value is clear. I'm backing this hard.

Home Field
Seattle Seahawks is 4-2 at home this season
Records
Seattle Seahawks: 14-3 | San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Seattle Seahawks allows 22.2 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Seattle Seahawks -7.0, sharp action noted
Houston Texans
Houston Texans
12-5
@
New England Patriots
14-3
New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan 18 | 08:00 PM ET | Gillette Stadium | ESPN
SpreadNE -3.0
TotalO/U 40.5
MLNE -170

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

I've been studying this one all week. The NFL Week 16 slate features Houston Texans (12-5) traveling to Gillette Stadium where New England Patriots (14-3) waits. This game matters. New England Patriots is just a 3.0-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

What really matters is Offensively, we're looking at 26.6 vs 26.9 PPG. Defensively, New England Patriots gives up 23.5 while Houston Texans allows 24.9. The matchup favors Houston Texans. The total of 40.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 53.5 PPG.

let's be honest, ATS records matter. New England Patriots at 6-4 against the spread. Houston Texans is 6-4. The value is clear. This is a gift from the market.

Home Field
New England Patriots is 7-2 at home this season
Records
New England Patriots: 14-3 | Houston Texans: 12-5
Scoring Defense
New England Patriots allows 21.7 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened New England Patriots -3.0, sharp action noted
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams
12-5
@
Chicago Bears
11-6
Chicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 18 | 11:30 PM ET | Soldier Field | NBC
SpreadCHI +3.5
TotalO/U 48.5
MLCHI +164

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

I'm not going to pretend this isn't important. Los Angeles Rams (12-5) heads to Soldier Field to take on Chicago Bears (11-6) in what shapes up as a pivotal Week 16 matchup. Chicago Bears as a home dog at +3.5? That immediately catches my eye. The market is telling us something.

But here's the thing - Chicago Bears is averaging 22.0 points per game with a defense allowing 18.4 PPG. Los Angeles Rams counters with 23.9 PPG and a 23.3 PPG defensive mark.

I mean, Chicago Bears is 7-3 ATS this season and 5-1 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. The numbers support it.

Home Field
Chicago Bears is 6-3 at home this season
Records
Chicago Bears: 11-6 | Los Angeles Rams: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Chicago Bears allows 20.5 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Chicago Bears +3.5, sharp action noted