Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
12-5
@
Denver Broncos
14-3
Denver Broncos
Saturday, Jan 17 | 09:30 PM ET | Empower Field at Mile High | CBS
SpreadDEN -6.5
TotalO/U 55.5
MLDEN -395

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Here's why I'm confident: Buffalo Bills (12-5) heads to Empower Field at Mile High to take on Denver Broncos (14-3) in what shapes up as a pivotal Week 16 matchup. With Denver Broncos laying 6.5 at home, this feels like the right number. Not too many, not too few.

It's worth noting Denver Broncos is averaging 25.3 points per game with a defense allowing 23.9 PPG. Buffalo Bills counters with 26.0 PPG and a 21.7 PPG defensive mark. At 55.5, this total is inflated. Combined they're scoring 51.3 PPG.

let's be honest, Denver Broncos is 6-5 ATS this season and 5-3 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. This is a gift from the market.

Home Field
Denver Broncos is 7-3 at home this season
Records
Denver Broncos: 14-3 | Buffalo Bills: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Denver Broncos allows 21.2 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Denver Broncos -6.5, sharp action noted
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
12-5
@
Seattle Seahawks
14-3
Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, Jan 18 | 01:00 AM ET | Lumen Field | FOX
SpreadSEA -7.0
TotalO/U 44.5
MLSEA -305

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

This line doesn't make sense. I've been breaking down the San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks matchup all week. San Francisco 49ers sits at 12-5 while Seattle Seahawks is 14-3 heading into this crucial contest. With Seattle Seahawks laying 7.0 at home, this feels like the right number. Not too many, not too few.

You have to consider The yardage tells a story - Seattle Seahawks gains 372 per game while San Francisco 49ers sits at 331. When you factor in defensive efficiency, Seattle Seahawks has the edge.

I mean, ATS records matter. Seattle Seahawks at 7-3 against the spread. San Francisco 49ers is 8-6. The value is clear. Give me this side all day.

Home Field
Seattle Seahawks is 5-3 at home this season
Records
Seattle Seahawks: 14-3 | San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Seattle Seahawks allows 19.0 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Seattle Seahawks -7.0, sharp action noted
Houston Texans
Houston Texans
12-5
@
New England Patriots
14-3
New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan 18 | 08:00 PM ET | Gillette Stadium | ESPN
SpreadNE -3.0
TotalO/U 40.5
MLNE -175

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Here's the thing: This Houston Texans at New England Patriots game has my attention. At 12-5 and 14-3 respectively, both teams have a lot riding on this one. New England Patriots is just a 3.0-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

What stands out is The yardage tells a story - New England Patriots gains 362 per game while Houston Texans sits at 323. When you factor in defensive efficiency, New England Patriots has the edge. The total of 40.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 46.1 PPG.

let's be honest, The betting trends are clear: New England Patriots covers consistently (7-7 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. This is a gift from the market.

Home Field
New England Patriots is 6-2 at home this season
Records
New England Patriots: 14-3 | Houston Texans: 12-5
Scoring Defense
New England Patriots allows 21.1 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened New England Patriots -3.0, sharp action noted
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams
12-5
@
Chicago Bears
11-6
Chicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 18 | 11:30 PM ET | Soldier Field | NBC
SpreadCHI +4.5
TotalO/U 48.5
MLCHI +164

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

Trust me on this one. The NFL Week 16 slate features Los Angeles Rams (12-5) traveling to Soldier Field where Chicago Bears (11-6) waits. This game matters. Chicago Bears as a home dog at +4.5? That immediately catches my eye. The market is telling us something.

Factor this in: The yardage tells a story - Chicago Bears gains 355 per game while Los Angeles Rams sits at 340. When you factor in defensive efficiency, Los Angeles Rams has the edge. At 48.5, this total is inflated. Combined they're scoring 43.0 PPG.

look, ATS records matter. Chicago Bears at 5-4 against the spread. Los Angeles Rams is 4-4. The value is clear. I'm confident here.

Home Field
Chicago Bears is 6-2 at home this season
Records
Chicago Bears: 11-6 | Los Angeles Rams: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Chicago Bears allows 19.0 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Chicago Bears +4.5, sharp action noted