Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
12-5
@
Denver Broncos
14-3
Denver Broncos
Saturday, Jan 17 | 09:30 PM ET | Empower Field at Mile High | CBS
SpreadDEN -1.5
TotalO/U 45.5
MLDEN -120

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Here's what stands out: This Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos game has my attention. At 12-5 and 14-3 respectively, both teams have a lot riding on this one. Denver Broncos is just a 1.5-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

What really matters is Offensively, we're looking at 27.8 vs 26.4 PPG. Defensively, Denver Broncos gives up 26.0 while Buffalo Bills allows 24.5. The matchup favors Denver Broncos. The total of 45.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 54.2 PPG.

let's be honest, The betting trends are clear: Denver Broncos covers consistently (6-3 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. Don't miss this spot.

Home Field
Denver Broncos is 5-1 at home this season
Records
Denver Broncos: 14-3 | Buffalo Bills: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Denver Broncos allows 18.2 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Denver Broncos -1.5, sharp action noted
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
12-5
@
Seattle Seahawks
14-3
Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, Jan 18 | 01:00 AM ET | Lumen Field | FOX
SpreadSEA -7.0
TotalO/U 45.5
MLSEA -340

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Let me break this down. This San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks game has my attention. At 12-5 and 14-3 respectively, both teams have a lot riding on this one. With Seattle Seahawks laying 7.0 at home, this feels like the right number. Not too many, not too few.

But here's the thing - Offensively, we're looking at 21.4 vs 23.1 PPG. Defensively, Seattle Seahawks gives up 20.0 while San Francisco 49ers allows 19.5. The matchup favors San Francisco 49ers.

I mean, The betting trends are clear: Seattle Seahawks covers consistently (9-3 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. I like this a lot.

Home Field
Seattle Seahawks is 7-2 at home this season
Records
Seattle Seahawks: 14-3 | San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Seattle Seahawks allows 20.1 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Seattle Seahawks -7.0, sharp action noted
Houston Texans
Houston Texans
12-5
@
New England Patriots
14-3
New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan 18 | 08:00 PM ET | Gillette Stadium | ESPN
SpreadNE -3.0
TotalO/U 40.5
MLNE -175

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

I've crunched the numbers. This Houston Texans at New England Patriots game has my attention. At 12-5 and 14-3 respectively, both teams have a lot riding on this one. New England Patriots is just a 3.0-point favorite, essentially making this a pick'em when you factor in home field.

And look, New England Patriots is averaging 23.3 points per game with a defense allowing 20.9 PPG. Houston Texans counters with 22.4 PPG and a 25.2 PPG defensive mark. The total of 40.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 45.7 PPG.

realistically, New England Patriots is 6-7 ATS this season and 5-2 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. I'm confident here.

Home Field
New England Patriots is 6-3 at home this season
Records
New England Patriots: 14-3 | Houston Texans: 12-5
Scoring Defense
New England Patriots allows 20.2 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened New England Patriots -3.0, sharp action noted
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams
12-5
@
Chicago Bears
11-6
Chicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 18 | 11:30 PM ET | Soldier Field | NBC
SpreadCHI +4.5
TotalO/U 48.5
MLCHI +164

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

Here's what the market is missing: Los Angeles Rams (12-5) heads to Soldier Field to take on Chicago Bears (11-6) in what shapes up as a pivotal Week 16 matchup. Chicago Bears as a home dog at +4.5? That immediately catches my eye. The market is telling us something.

It's worth noting Chicago Bears is averaging 27.5 points per game with a defense allowing 19.4 PPG. Los Angeles Rams counters with 26.5 PPG and a 22.2 PPG defensive mark. The total of 48.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 54.0 PPG.

honestly, Chicago Bears is 8-7 ATS this season and 5-2 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. Let's ride.

Home Field
Chicago Bears is 4-1 at home this season
Records
Chicago Bears: 11-6 | Los Angeles Rams: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Chicago Bears allows 21.4 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Chicago Bears +4.5, sharp action noted