Soccer Betting Analysis - February 10, 2026

This is the most intriguing match of the day. Prediction models are almost perfectly split, with Tottenham at 37.3%, Newcastle at 38.2%, and the draw at 24.5%. When the market can't separate two sides, you know you're looking at a genuine toss-up, and those are the spots where value hides.

Tottenham at home should have the edge, but both sides have been on winless runs recently, which makes this unpredictable. Spurs' attacking talent is undeniable, but their defensive inconsistency has been the story of their season. They create chances in bunches but can't keep clean sheets to save their lives.

Newcastle will be looking to impose their physicality and control the midfield. The Magpies are strong in transition and can hurt you on the counter, which is exactly how you want to play at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium when the home side pushes numbers forward. The 57% probability on Over 2.5 goals makes sense, both teams will have chances, and neither defense inspires confidence right now. BTTS at 1.65 looks like the safest play on this card.

Chelsea at home as -180 favorites is about as standard as it gets at Stamford Bridge. The Blues have a 64.3% implied win probability based on the moneyline, and independent models put them even higher at 61.9%. This is Chelsea's game to lose.

Leeds have been competitive since returning to the Premier League, but winning at the Bridge is a different ask entirely. Chelsea's depth allows them to rotate midweek without dropping quality, and their home form has been solid this season. The pressing intensity at Stamford Bridge makes it hard for visiting teams to build any rhythm in possession.

The BTTS market at 1.67 is interesting. Chelsea will likely score, that's not the question. The question is whether Leeds can nick one at the other end. They've got the attacking players to do it, especially on the break, and Chelsea's high line can be exposed by pace. If you're looking for value beyond the result, BTTS Yes is the play here.

This is a genuine coin flip. Models have Everton winning at 39.5%, Bournemouth at 35.2%, and the draw at 25.3%. The 2.5-goal Over/Under is split 53% in favor of the Over, barely above even. Neither side is particularly prolific, but neither is shutting anyone out either.

Everton at their new home ground have been scrappy, and they tend to show up for the midweek fixtures when the crowd is behind them. Bournemouth, though, have been one of the stories of the Premier League season, punching above their weight and picking up points on the road that nobody expected them to get.

The play here is the BTTS + Under 5.5 combo at 1.85. Both teams will likely find the net, but neither has the firepower for a blowout. A 2-1 or 1-1 scoreline fits the profile of this match perfectly. Don't overthink it.

Manchester United are the clear favorites here at -138, and the upturn under Michael Carrick has been remarkable. Carrick has won all four of his matches in his second spell as interim manager, and the Red Devils are firmly in the Champions League places. When a new manager bounce combines with real quality, you get a team that's dangerous to bet against.

West Ham at the London Stadium are no pushovers, though. They've been in fine form themselves, and home advantage matters more in midweek fixtures when travel and recovery play a bigger role. The 3:15 PM ET kickoff (8:15 PM local) means this is under the lights, and the London Stadium atmosphere for midweek Premier League can be electric.

United's confidence is sky-high right now, and that shows in the price. At -138, you're getting reasonable value on a team that's won four straight and playing with conviction. West Ham at +333 is the kind of price that should make you think twice, but the form line doesn't support it right now. Man United to win is the straightforward play. If you want value, look at Under 2.5 goals, as Carrick's teams tend to be pragmatic.

Coppa Italia quarterfinal action with Napoli hosting at the Maradona. Despite the matchup listing Como first, this is Napoli's home ground, and the Partenopei will be massive favorites. Napoli's squad depth makes cup competitions a perfect showcase for rotation players to prove themselves, and the intensity at the Maradona in knockout football is something else entirely.

Como, newly promoted and still finding their footing in Serie A, will likely field a mixed squad as well. Cup runs are nice but staying in the top flight is the priority. This should be Napoli's game from start to finish, though Como will try to make it competitive for as long as possible. Look for Napoli to control possession, create chances through patient build-up, and advance comfortably.