NBA Betting Analysis - February 10, 2026

This is one of the widest spreads you'll see all season, and honestly, the Knicks probably deserve to be laying even more. Indiana (13-40) is in full rebuild mode, losers of four straight and playing some of the worst basketball in the league right now. New York (34-19) is rolling, going 9-1 straight up and 9-1 against the spread over their last 10 games. That's not a team coasting. That's a team suffocating opponents.

Jalen Brunson continues to be the engine of everything the Knicks do, putting up 27.1 points and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 37.5% from deep. Karl-Anthony Towns has been a revelation inside, averaging 19.7 points and 11.9 rebounds, and Mikal Bridges chips in 15.7. This is a balanced, deep team that can beat you from every level.

For Indiana, Pascal Siakam (23.6 PPG) and Andrew Nembhard (17.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) are doing what they can, but this roster simply doesn't have the depth to hang with an elite squad at MSG. Ivica Zubac brings size (14.4 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 61.3% FG), but the defensive drop-off around him is massive.

The 223.5 total feels about right. Indiana plays fast and doesn't guard anyone, but the Knicks can slow the pace when they choose to, especially with a big lead. New York's defensive structure is good enough to keep this from turning into a track meet. The Pacers have gone 4-6 ATS in their last 10, meaning they can't even cover these inflated numbers consistently.

Houston (32-19) at home is a completely different animal. The Rockets are 17-6 at Toyota Center this season, and when you factor in that Kevin Durant (25.9 PPG) has turned this squad into a legitimate contender, laying 7.5 feels reasonable. Alperen Sengun is having a breakout year, posting 20.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game, a genuine triple-double threat every night. Add Amen Thompson (17.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG) to the mix and Houston has one of the most versatile offensive attacks in the league.

The Clippers (25-27) are living and dying by Kawhi Leonard's health. When he's on, he's still elite, averaging 28.0 points and 6.3 rebounds. But the supporting cast of Bennedict Mathurin (17.8 PPG) and John Collins (13.8 PPG) doesn't scream "road upset against a top-five team." LA is 6-4 in their last 10 and 5-5 ATS, treading water in the play-in picture.

The 209.5 total is the lowest on tonight's board. Houston's defense has been stingy at home, and the Clippers don't exactly push tempo. This has the makings of a half-court grind where possessions get eaten up by isolation sets. Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10, but Houston's home-court splits make this a clear lean toward the Rockets covering. The Clippers are 2-0 ATS against Houston historically, though, so don't dismiss them as a live dog.

Dallas (19-33) is in freefall, losers of seven straight, and walking into the desert against a Phoenix (31-22) team that wins 76.9% of their games when installed as favorites. This is the definition of a bad spot for the Mavericks, and the market knows it.

Devin Booker (25.3 PPG) is still Phoenix's alpha, but the real story has been Dillon Brooks stepping into a massive role, averaging 21.1 points per game. The Suns have found their identity as a two-way team this season, and they're not the defensive sieve they were a year ago. At home against a team bleeding confidence, Phoenix should control this from wire to wire.

For Dallas, the post-Luka era has been rough. Rookie Cooper Flagg (20.3 PPG) is flashing the star potential that made him the top pick, but he's learning what it means to be "the guy" on a rebuilding squad. Naji Marshall (14.7 PPG) provides some stability, but there's simply not enough firepower to hang with Phoenix's top-end talent. The Mavs win just 31.4% of their games as underdogs this season.

The 227.5 total is the highest on tonight's card. Dallas gives up points in bunches when they're losing, and losing streaks tend to produce blowouts where the trailing team chucks threes late. Phoenix's pace at home can push totals higher, especially when the opponent can't slow them down. This feels like a Suns cruise control win in the 12-15 point range.

This is the headliner and it's not close. San Antonio (36-16) has been the Western Conference's biggest story this season, riding Victor Wembanyama's generational talent to the second seed. Wemby is putting up absurd numbers, 23.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game. Over his last 12 outings, he's averaged 23.8 points, 11.4 boards, and 2.4 threes per game. There's simply nothing you can do to stop him.

The addition of De'Aaron Fox at the trade deadline last season supercharged everything. Fox gives San Antonio a true lead guard who can create in the half-court and push pace in transition, and paired with Wembanyama's rim protection, the Spurs have the best two-way foundation in the West. Stephon Castle has been a revelation off the bench as well.

For the Lakers, Luka Doncic (32.8 PPG) is doing everything humanly possible. His scoring numbers are otherworldly, and Austin Reaves (26.1 PPG) has emerged as a legitimate second star. LeBron James (21.8 PPG) is still contributing at 41, and the team leads the league in field goal percentage at 49.9%. But offense alone can't overcome the defensive gap between these two rosters.

The 228.5 total is the highest number on tonight's slate. Both teams can score in waves, Luka and Wemby alone could combine for 55+, and neither defense is stingy enough to keep the pace slow. The Spurs are road favorites by 8.5, which tells you everything about the power gap in the West this season. San Antonio has the structure and discipline to handle the bright lights at Crypto.com. This should be the best game on the card, even if the spread says otherwise.