The 2025-26 NBA MVP race is entering its most critical phase, and for the first time in weeks, there is genuine uncertainty at the top. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the betting favorite at -220, but his abdominal strain has opened a window that at least three other players are aggressively trying to climb through. With the 65-game eligibility threshold looming over several candidates, the stretch run is not just about who plays the best basketball. It is about who is available to play at all.
The 65-Game Threshold Is Reshaping the Entire Race
The NBA's 65-game rule, implemented as part of the latest CBA, requires players to appear in at least 65 regular season games (playing a minimum of 20 minutes each) to qualify for major end-of-season awards like MVP. What sounded like a reasonable mandate to keep stars on the floor has turned into the single most important variable in this year's race.
Nikola Jokic, who missed 16 consecutive games with a knee injury, can only sit out one more game the rest of the season before he becomes ineligible entirely. Victor Wembanyama has missed 13 games and can only miss four more. Luka Doncic has already missed 12 games with the Lakers, giving him a razor-thin margin of five more absences. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James have already been eliminated from award eligibility because they have missed too many games.
The irony is thick: some of the most statistically dominant players in the league might not even qualify for the award their numbers deserve. That is a storyline worth watching over the final 28 games.
Current NBA MVP Odds: Where the Market Stands
| Player | Team | Odds | Key Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | -220 | 31.8 PPG, 6.4 APG, 55.4% FG |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | +300 | 28.9 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 10.7 APG |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | +600 | 32.8 PPG, 8.6 APG, 7.8 RPG |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | +1400 | 25.7 PPG, 9.7 APG, 5.7 RPG |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | Long shot | 24.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 2.6 BPG |
SGA: The Frontrunner With an Asterisk
There is no arguing with the body of work. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.8 points per game on a career-best 55.4% from the field with a 67.0% True Shooting percentage, 6.4 assists, and elite two-way impact at the point of attack. His -220 odds carry an implied probability of 68.8%, meaning the market gives him roughly a two-in-three chance of winning the award. He grabbed 78 of 100 first-place votes in ESPN's most recent MVP straw poll, and he was the only player named on all 100 ballots. He is the defending MVP and Finals MVP after leading the Thunder to their first championship last season.
But here is the complication: SGA has been sidelined with an abdominal strain. The Thunder said he would be reevaluated approximately one week after the All-Star break, with analysts projecting a return around February 27. Every game he misses tightens his own eligibility math. It also gives the narrative-hungry media an opening to ask whether you can award the league's top individual honor to someone who missed significant time during the stretch run. The Thunder have been dominant enough to survive without him, and that could cut both ways. It proves OKC's depth, but it also weakens the "his team needs him" argument that MVP voters love.
Cade Cunningham: The Story Nobody Saw Coming
If the MVP award is truly about value, about what one player means to his team's identity and trajectory, then Cade Cunningham deserves every bit of the attention he is finally getting. The Pistons are 41-13, the best record in the NBA at the All-Star break. They have not lost more than two consecutive games all season. And Cunningham is the engine driving all of it.
His numbers are terrific: 25.7 points, 9.7 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game. But the numbers alone do not capture what Cunningham has done to this franchise. Detroit was the laughingstock of the NBA just two seasons ago. Now they are 17-6 against teams with winning records, and Cunningham's combination of scoring, playmaking, and defensive improvement has transformed the entire organization.
On February 19, Cunningham dropped 42 points, 13 assists, and 8 rebounds in a 126-111 demolition of the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. He became the first visiting player since LeBron James in 2009 to record 40-plus points and 10-plus assists at MSG. His head coach, J.B. Bickerstaff, said it plainly on NBA Radio during All-Star Weekend: "If the season ended today, he's the MVP." His odds range from +1400 to +2000 depending on the book, which translates to an implied probability of just 4.8% to 6.7%. For a player with the best team record of any candidate who has been the most available star in the race, that feels like a significant market inefficiency.
The Cunningham Case in One Stat: Detroit is 41-13 with the NBA's best record. Cunningham has played in nearly every game. He is the only top MVP candidate whose team is first in its conference while his eligibility is not in question.
Nikola Jokic: A Triple-Double Machine on the Brink of Disqualification
The numbers are absurd even by Jokic standards. He is averaging 28.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 10.7 assists per game, shooting 59.3% from the field, a career-best 42.7% from three-point range, and posting a staggering 70.3% True Shooting percentage, the highest mark among all MVP candidates. In any other year, this would be a lock for MVP. This is not any other year.
Jokic missed 16 games with a knee injury earlier in the season, and he can only miss one more game before he falls below the 65-game threshold. That means from now through the end of the regular season, Jokic essentially has to be an ironman. One bad ankle roll, one illness, one load management decision, and his candidacy is dead. Voters know this, and it is hard to build momentum when everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop. His +300 odds reflect the statistical brilliance but also the very real risk that it could all become moot.
Luka Doncic: Scoring King, Availability Concerns
Luka Doncic is leading the entire NBA in scoring at 32.8 points per game while also dishing out 8.6 assists and pulling down 7.8 rebounds for the Lakers. His individual production is impossible to ignore. But Doncic has already missed 12 games this season, and multiple sources indicate he is at serious risk of falling below the 65-game threshold, which would make his candidacy moot regardless of the numbers.
The Lakers' record, while respectable, does not carry the weight of Detroit's 41-13 mark or Oklahoma City's elite standing. MVP voters have always factored in team success, and Doncic's case suffers in that comparison. His +600 odds suggest he is a respected contender but not a serious threat to overtake SGA unless something dramatic shifts in the final weeks.
Victor Wembanyama: The Comeback Story of the Year
One year ago, Victor Wembanyama's season ended abruptly when doctors diagnosed him with deep vein thrombosis, a blood clot in his right shoulder. The diagnosis sent shockwaves through the basketball world and raised serious questions about the long-term health of the most physically unique player the sport has ever seen.
Fast forward to February 2026, and Wembanyama is not just back, he is thriving. The Spurs are one of the three teams in the NBA that have not lost more than two consecutive games all season, sitting in the top three of the Western Conference standings. San Antonio has reeled off seven straight wins, including a 121-94 blowout of the Suns on February 19 where Wembanyama posted 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 blocks in just 25 minutes.
For the season, Wembanyama is averaging 24.3 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.6 blocks per game. He was named a Western Conference All-Star starter for the second time. And the addition of De'Aaron Fox at the trade deadline has supercharged the Spurs' backcourt, with Fox averaging 19.3 points and 6.3 assists in his San Antonio debut stretch.
Wembanyama's 13 missed games put his 65-game eligibility in jeopardy, with only four more absences allowed. But even if he does not win MVP this year, his story is the most compelling in the league: a 22-year-old who overcame a life-threatening diagnosis and came back to lead his team toward the playoffs. The Spurs, who went 34-48 last season, are a completely different franchise.
The Bottom Line: Who Has the Best MVP Case Right Now?
SGA's resume remains the strongest, and the -220 odds reflect that reality. He is the best player on one of the best teams, he is the reigning champion, and his per-game production is elite across the board. But his abdominal strain absence creates genuine uncertainty, and his lead is not as comfortable as it was a month ago.
The real value play at the MVP futures window is Cade Cunningham. At +1400 to +2000 depending on the book, the market is pricing him at a 4.8% to 6.7% implied probability of winning. That feels low for a player whose team owns the best record in the league at 41-13, who has been healthy all season, and whose recent performances, including the historic 42-point, 13-assist masterpiece at MSG, are building the kind of highlight reel that sticks in voters' minds.
Jokic's 70.3% True Shooting percentage is otherworldly, but the 65-game sword hanging over his head makes him a risky bet at +300. Doncic has the scoring volume but is at serious risk of failing the eligibility threshold entirely. And Wembanyama, while perhaps the best long-term player in this group, is more of a Comeback Player of the Year candidate than a realistic MVP contender in 2026.
The stretch run starts now. The most interesting name on the board is the one the market is still undervaluing despite having the best record in the league and no eligibility questions.