NFL Key Numbers Guide: Why 3 and 7 Rule Football Betting
In NFL betting, not all numbers are created equal. Understanding key numbers, the margins of victory that occur most frequently, gives you an edge that most casual bettors never develop. This guide breaks down exactly why certain numbers matter and how to use them strategically.
What You'll Learn
What Are Key Numbers in NFL Betting?
Key numbers in NFL betting refer to the most common margins of victory. Because football scoring happens in specific increments, touchdowns worth 6 or 7 points and field goals worth 3, certain final score differences occur far more often than others. When a spread lands on or near these numbers, the probability of a push or a one-point swing affecting your bet increases dramatically.
Think about it this way: if a team wins by a field goal, that's a 3-point margin. If they win by a touchdown with an extra point, that's 7. These aren't just common outcomes; they represent the fundamental building blocks of football scoring. Every serious NFL bettor needs to understand which numbers appear most often and how that knowledge should influence their betting decisions.
The concept matters most when you're deciding whether to bet a spread as posted, buy points to move through a key number, or pass on a game entirely. A half-point difference around 3 or 7 is worth far more than a half-point difference around 5 or 8.
The Big Two: Why 3 and 7 Dominate
The number 3 is the single most important key number in football betting. Historically, approximately 15% of all NFL games end with exactly a 3-point margin of victory. That's roughly one in every six or seven games landing on exactly 3. No other number comes close to this frequency.
Why does 3 occur so often? The most obvious reason is the field goal. When teams trade scores throughout a game, the final possession often determines the outcome. A team that's down by 4 late in the fourth quarter might settle for a field goal, losing by 1. A team that's tied might kick a game-winning field goal. A team that's up by 6 might add a field goal for insurance. The 3-point play is woven into every close game's fabric.
The number 7 ranks second among key numbers, with approximately 9-10% of games ending on exactly a 7-point margin. The touchdown plus extra point is football's most valuable single scoring play, and games that are close but not quite even often end with one team having scored exactly one more touchdown.
Together, 3 and 7 account for roughly one-quarter of all NFL game margins. That concentration of outcomes makes these numbers critical for any spread betting strategy. The difference between getting +3 versus +2.5, or +7 versus +6.5, can dramatically affect your long-term results.
The Value of the Half-Point at 3 and 7
Books know that bettors want to be on the right side of key numbers. That's why you'll often see different juice attached to spreads near 3 and 7. A team might be listed at -3 (-115) instead of the standard -110, or you might see -2.5 (-105) as an alternative. These adjusted prices reflect the market's understanding of key number value.
Example: Key Number Value
Say you like the Chiefs -2.5. The game opens Chiefs -3 (-110). You could:
- Bet -3 (-110): Risk push on exactly 3-point margin (~15% of games)
- Buy to -2.5 (-120): Pay extra juice but win if Chiefs win by exactly 3
The math depends on whether that 15% push rate justifies the extra juice. In many cases, it does.
Secondary Key Numbers: 6, 10, and 14
While 3 and 7 are the primary key numbers, several secondary numbers appear frequently enough to warrant attention. These occur less often than the big two but still represent meaningful spikes in the margin distribution.
The Number 6
Six points equals a touchdown without the extra point or two field goals. Games ending on 6 happen about 5-6% of the time. This number has become slightly more relevant in recent years as more teams attempt two-point conversions, occasionally leading to a 6-point scoring play instead of 7.
The Number 10
A 10-point margin represents a touchdown plus a field goal advantage, one of the most common "comfortable win" scenarios. Approximately 5-6% of games land on exactly 10. When a spread crosses through 10, you're moving through a meaningful threshold.
The Number 14
Fourteen points equals two touchdowns with extra points. This is the classic "two-score game" margin that teams often protect in the fourth quarter. About 4-5% of games end with exactly a 14-point margin, making it the last truly significant key number before you get into blowout territory.
| Key Number | Approximate Frequency | Primary Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | ~15% | Field goal margin, most common outcome |
| 7 | ~10% | Touchdown margin, second most common |
| 6 | ~5-6% | TD without PAT or two field goals |
| 10 | ~5-6% | Touchdown plus field goal advantage |
| 14 | ~4-5% | Two-touchdown margin |
| 4 | ~3-4% | FG + safety or failed two-point conversion |
| 17 | ~3% | Two TDs plus FG |
Complete Margin of Victory Distribution
Understanding the full distribution of NFL margins helps contextualize why key numbers matter so much. The margins between 1 and 14 account for roughly 70% of all NFL games. Here's how that breaks down:
Very common (10%+): 3 is alone in this tier, occurring more than any other margin by a significant amount.
Common (5-10%): 7, 6, and 10 fall into this range. You'll see these margins multiple times per week during the NFL season.
Moderately common (3-5%): 4, 14, 1, 17, and 11 appear often enough to matter but not so frequently that they dominate strategy.
Less common (below 3%): Numbers like 2, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, 15, and 16 occur but aren't worth special strategic consideration in most cases.
Pro Tip: Track Your Pushes
Keep a record of how often your bets push or lose by exactly one point at key numbers. Over a full season, you might be surprised how many outcomes cluster around 3 and 7. This data helps you determine whether buying points has been profitable for your specific betting patterns.
When to Buy Points (And When Not To)
Buying points means paying extra juice to move the spread in your favor. Books typically charge 10 cents (an extra 10 in juice) per half-point on standard moves, but crossing through 3 and 7 costs more, often 15-25 cents per half-point. The question is whether that cost is justified.
When Buying Points Makes Sense
Moving off 3 to 3.5 when taking the underdog: If you're getting +3 and can buy to +3.5 for reasonable juice, you're protecting against the most common margin of victory. The math often supports this move.
Moving from -3 to -2.5 when taking the favorite: Avoiding a push on a 3-point favorite win is worth the extra juice in many situations, especially if you believe the game will be close.
Moving through 7 in either direction: Similar logic applies, though the frequency is lower than 3, so the cost-benefit calculation is slightly less favorable.
When Buying Points Doesn't Make Sense
Moving through non-key numbers: Buying from -5.5 to -5 doesn't give you nearly the value of moving through 3 or 7. The frequency of 5-point margins doesn't justify the cost.
Paying excessive juice: If a book charges -130 or worse to move off a key number, the math usually doesn't work. The expected value turns negative.
When you're not confident in the side: Don't buy points to make a mediocre bet into a slightly better mediocre bet. The cost of buying only makes sense when you have genuine conviction in the wager.
Warning: Don't Overbuy
Buying multiple points almost never makes mathematical sense. The juice compounds while the benefit decreases. If you need to buy 2 or more points to feel good about a bet, you probably shouldn't make the bet.
Teaser Strategy Around Key Numbers
Teasers, which move the spread 6, 6.5, or 7 points in your favor, become most valuable when they cross through multiple key numbers. The Wong Teaser strategy, named after gambling author Stanford Wong, specifically targets situations where you can cross through both 3 and 7.
The Wong Teaser Concept
A 6-point NFL teaser is most effective when:
- Taking a favorite of -7.5 to -8.5: Teasing down to -1.5 to -2.5 crosses through 7 and lands you needing just a win, not a cover.
- Taking an underdog of +1.5 to +2.5: Teasing up to +7.5 to +8.5 crosses through 3 and 7, giving you significant cushion.
The key insight is that you want to move through the most important numbers, not just move 6 points in a random direction. A teaser that takes a team from -10 to -4 doesn't cross any key numbers and offers far less value than one that takes -8 to -2.
Example: Good Teaser Legs
Strong teaser candidate: Bills -7.5, teased to -1.5. Crosses through 7, 6, and 3. Now you just need a Bills win.
Weak teaser candidate: Cowboys -13, teased to -7. Doesn't cross through 3 at all. Still need a full-touchdown win.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Mistake 1: Treating All Half-Points Equally
The difference between -3 and -3.5 is not the same as the difference between -4 and -4.5. Bettors who pay the same juice to cross non-key numbers as key numbers are making a mathematical error.
Mistake 2: Ignoring Key Numbers on Totals
While key numbers matter most for spreads, totals have their own cluster points. In the NFL, 41, 43, 44, and 47 occur slightly more often than surrounding numbers due to typical scoring combinations. Don't obsess over these, but be aware they exist.
Mistake 3: Buying Points Without Calculating the Math
Some bettors buy points reflexively without understanding whether the cost is justified. Before buying, calculate: what percentage of outcomes would this move change, and does that percentage exceed the cost in juice?
Mistake 4: Overvaluing Key Numbers on Big Spreads
Key numbers matter most for spreads between 1 and 10. Once you get into double-digit spreads (14+), the game dynamics change. Blowouts are more random in their final margins, and key number value diminishes.
Mistake 5: Forgetting That Books Know This Too
Oddsmakers understand key numbers better than most bettors. They shade lines around 3 and 7 accordingly. If a line looks too good at a key number, ask why. The market isn't giving away free money.