Super Bowl LX Complete Betting Guide: Seahawks vs Patriots

This is the Super Bowl nobody predicted and everybody should have seen coming. The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, two franchises that entered the 2025 season at +6000 to win the Super Bowl, are meeting in Santa Clara on February 8th. That is the first time in over 50 years that both Super Bowl participants entered the season with at least 60-to-1 odds. If you had the foresight to bet either team before the season, congratulations. BetMGM already paid out $1.4 million on a single $50,000 preseason wager on Seattle to win the NFC at +2800 odds.

For the rest of us degenerates who did not have that kind of crystal ball, the two-week window between Championship Sunday and the Super Bowl is where the real work begins. This game has fascinating betting angles on every level: the spread, the total, the props, the MVP market. Let me break it all down.

The Seahawks: NFC's No. 1 Seed for a Reason

Mike Macdonald's first season as Seattle's head coach has been nothing short of extraordinary. The Seahawks went 14-3 during the regular season, set a franchise record for wins, and earned the NFC's top seed for the first time since 2014. This is a complete team built on an elite defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL during the regular season and an offense that found new life with Sam Darnold at the controls.

Darnold's redemption arc is the single best story in the NFL this season. Seattle signed him to a three-year, $110.5 million deal in March 2025 after the Vikings did not retain him following a solid 2024 campaign in Minnesota. In his first year with the Seahawks, Darnold threw for 4,048 yards with 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on a 67.7% completion rate with a 99.1 passer rating. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to record 14 wins in his first season with two different teams in back-to-back years. That is a stat so absurd it barely sounds real.

The roster around Darnold has been rebuilt aggressively. Cooper Kupp and DeMarcus Lawrence joined in the offseason as Tyler Lockett (Titans), Geno Smith (Raiders), and DK Metcalf (Steelers) departed. The defense, led by Macdonald's scheming, has been the backbone. In the Divisional Round against San Francisco, Seattle annihilated the 49ers 41-6, forcing six turnovers. In the NFC Championship against the Rams, they won a closer 31-27 contest against the league's top-ranked offense. That range of results, dominant blowout to competitive shootout, is the mark of a genuinely complete team.

The Patriots: Defense, Drake Maye, and Destiny

The Patriots' turnaround under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel is the other incredible storyline headed into this game. New England went 14-3 in the regular season, won the AFC East for the first time since 2019, and Drake Maye established himself as one of the best young quarterbacks in football. Vrabel joins George Seifert and Jim Caldwell as the only coaches to win 14 games in their first season leading a team.

Maye's second-year leap was historic. He threw for 4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions, posted a 72.0% completion rate (the highest in franchise history and sixth-best in NFL history), and finished with a 113.5 passer rating. Tom Brady is the only other Patriots quarterback to finish a season with a passer rating over 100, and Maye's 113.5 mark is second only to Brady's 117.2 in the legendary 2007 season. He won the NFL's Most Improved Player award and was named to the Pro Bowl and All-Pro second team.

New England's defense has been the other engine. They allowed just 18.8 points per game during the regular season, fourth-best in the NFL. In three playoff games, the defense surrendered a total of 26 points. They held the Chargers to 3, the Texans to 16, and the Broncos to 7. That is elite-level playoff defense, and it is the reason the Patriots are in this game despite a 10-7 AFC Championship win where Maye completed just 10 of 21 passes for 86 yards in the snow.

Spread Analysis: Is 4.5 the Right Number?

Here is the argument for the Seahawks covering. Seattle's defense was the best in football during the regular season. Their offense just put up 31 against the Rams' No. 1 ranked offense. Darnold has been excellent in two playoff starts. They are 14-5 against the spread this season, which means the market has consistently undervalued them. At home, at a neutral site in California where the 12th Man will travel well, Seattle is the more complete team on both sides of the ball.

Here is the argument for the Patriots covering. Underdogs have won the last three Super Bowls outright. Underdogs have covered the spread in five consecutive Super Bowls. This is a massive trend that the market knows about but cannot seem to fully price in. The Patriots have not been Super Bowl underdogs since 2002, when they upset the Rams to win their first championship. There is something poetic about New England returning to underdog status in a game that could launch a new dynasty.

The 4.5-point spread sits at a critical number. If this were 3 or 3.5, the Patriots side would be less attractive because you are essentially just betting on them to keep it close. At 4.5, you are getting nearly a full extra possession of cushion. For a team that just held three playoff opponents to fewer than 17 points each, that extra half-point matters.

On the other hand, Seattle is 14-5 ATS for a reason. The market has underpriced them all season, and the Seahawks have an argument as the most complete team in football. If Darnold plays like he did against the Rams (346 yards, 3 TDs), and the defense plays like it did against the 49ers (41-6 blowout), 4.5 is not nearly enough.

Total Analysis: Over or Under 45.5?

The total is where this game gets really interesting. Consider the contradictions: Seattle scored 41 and 31 in their two playoff games. New England scored 16, 28, and 10. One team's offense is cooking. The other team's offense ranges from efficient to completely dormant depending on conditions.

The Patriots scored 28 against Houston's defense in the Divisional Round, which shows they can put up points when Maye is on and the weather cooperates. Levi's Stadium in early February should provide decent conditions, nothing like the Denver blizzard that limited the AFC Championship to 17 combined points. That environment change alone should unlock more of Maye's passing ability.

But Seattle's defense is the factor that could suppress this total. They led the NFL in fewest points allowed during the regular season. If they get after Maye the way they got after the 49ers (six turnovers, 41-6 demolition), this game could become one-sided quickly, which would push the total under even with a Seattle blowout.

MVP Market: Darnold vs Maye

The Super Bowl MVP market is one of the most fun bets of the two-week window, and this year it comes down to two quarterbacks with incredible stories.

Darnold at +130 reflects his status as the favorite's quarterback. If Seattle wins, he is the most likely MVP recipient given his playoff performance (25-for-36, 346 yards, 3 TDs in the NFC Championship). He is the safe, chalk pick.

Maye at +235 offers better value. If the Patriots pull the upset, Maye will almost certainly win MVP, and at +235 you are getting meaningful plus-money on a quarterback who has been electric all season. His dual-threat ability (65 rushing yards in the AFC Championship, 66 in the Wild Card) gives him multiple paths to an MVP-caliber performance even if his passing numbers are modest.

Non-QB MVP Candidates

Smith-Njigba at +550 is intriguing. If Darnold distributes the ball effectively and JSN finishes with a 8-catch, 130-yard, 2-TD line, the committee could hand him the award. At +550, that is a solid value play on the Seahawks' top receiving weapon.

Featured Prop Bets

The Super Bowl prop market is where most of the recreational action ends up, and this year has some genuinely interesting plays.

The "50 Shades of Maye" prop at +145 stands out. Maye has rushed for 50+ yards in two of three playoff games (65 against Denver, 66 against the Chargers). He has had double-digit rushing yards in every game this season except one. In a neutral-site dome environment where the weather will not limit him, getting +145 on a player who has hit one leg of this prop in two of his last three games is a strong value play.

The "Ghost Buster" prop for Darnold at +220 is a fun narrative play. Darnold threw three touchdowns in the NFC Championship and has thrown 25 regular season touchdowns. He hit 3+ passing TDs multiple times during the season. At +220, the odds imply roughly a 31% probability, which feels low given Darnold's recent playoff production against quality defenses.

The Rematch Factor: Super Bowl XLIX Revisited

This is the part the NFL marketing department cannot stop talking about, and for good reason. The last time these two franchises met in the Super Bowl was Super Bowl XLIX on February 1, 2015, when Malcolm Butler intercepted Russell Wilson at the goal line to seal a 28-24 Patriots victory. That play is one of the most iconic moments in Super Bowl history.

Neither roster has a single player from that 2015 game. The coaches are different. The quarterbacks were not even in the NFL yet. But the franchise rivalry is real, and both fan bases remember. For bettors, the narrative is mostly noise, but it does mean elevated public interest, which typically drives more recreational money toward the favorite. That can create value on the underdog if the spread gets pushed past the true number.

Sharp Angles and Betting Strategy

The Underdog Trend Is Real

Five consecutive Super Bowls with the underdog covering is not a random statistical blip. The Super Bowl is the most bet-on event in sports, and the public overwhelmingly bets the favorite. That sustained public pressure inflates the favorite's spread, creating value on the other side. With recreational money already flooding in on Seattle, there is a structural argument that Patriots +4.5 is the sharper side.

The Weather Wildcard

Levi's Stadium is an open-air venue. Early February in Santa Clara typically means temperatures in the mid-50s with the possibility of rain. That is significantly different from the Denver blizzard New England just played in, but it is not the ideal passing conditions of a dome. If conditions are wet, the under becomes more attractive and the game becomes more about rushing and defense, which favors New England's identity.

The Sportsbook Liability Angle

DraftKings has the Patriots as their largest Super Bowl liability, with money on New England "everywhere" according to sportsbook director Johnny Avello. The books had New England as long as 120-to-1 after Week 3. When books are heavily exposed on one side, they sometimes shade the line to limit their exposure. That could mean the -4.5 is slightly inflated, which again points to value on the Patriots side for sharp bettors.

Two weeks until kickoff. The lines will move, the injury reports will be dissected, and the prop market will expand to hundreds of options. The smart play right now is to lock in positions where you see value before the market adjusts. The Super Bowl is the one game where waiting costs you, because every square bettor in America will be pushing these numbers around by game day.

Whether you are riding with Darnold's redemption tour or betting on Maye as the next great Patriot, Super Bowl LX has the makings of an all-time classic. Enjoy the two weeks. Bet responsibly. And remember: the underdog has covered five straight.