NFL Divisional Round Sunday: The Championship Picture Takes Shape
Saturday delivered chaos. Pure, unfiltered playoff chaos that reminded everyone why January football is unlike anything else in sports. The Broncos survived a wild overtime thriller against Buffalo, but the cost was devastating beyond measure. Bo Nix's ankle is shattered. His season is over. And Denver's Super Bowl hopes? They're hanging by a thread now. Meanwhile, Seattle sent a message that echoed through the entire NFC: the Seahawks aren't just contenders. They're the team to beat.
Now it's Sunday's turn. Two games. Two trips to the Conference Championship on the line. Drake Maye hosts his first playoff game at Gillette, while the Bears try to keep their magical run alive against a banged-up Rams squad. I'm breaking it all down right here.
Saturday Recap: The Broncos Win, Then Lose Everything
AFC Divisional: Denver Broncos 33, Buffalo Bills 30 (OT)
- Bo Nix: 26-of-46, 279 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT. Also rushed for 29 yards on 12 carries.
- Nix led go-ahead drives at the end of regulation AND overtime.
- He became the first QB not named Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow to defeat Josh Allen in the postseason this decade.
- Denver's first home playoff win in a decade.
BREAKING: Bo Nix Out for Season
Sean Payton confirmed the nightmare after the game. Bo Nix fractured his right ankle on the second-to-last play of overtime, a QB sweep that lost 2 yards. He threw the deep ball that drew a pass interference penalty on the very next play, then took a knee to set up the winning field goal. Nix will undergo surgery Tuesday in Birmingham. Jarrett Stidham will start the AFC Championship.
Here's the betting fallout. Massive. Denver went from +325 to +900 to win the Super Bowl after the injury news, representing one of the largest single-game odds swings in recent playoff history. That's a 275% swing in implied probability. The Broncos still have home-field advantage and one of the NFL's best defenses. But they've got nothing at quarterback. Nothing. Stidham's career record? 4-8 in 12 starts. That's the guy tasked with getting Denver to the Super Bowl. Uncharted territory doesn't begin to describe the situation the Broncos now find themselves navigating through the rest of these playoffs.
NFC Divisional: Seattle Seahawks 41, San Francisco 49ers 6
- Rashid Shaheed: 95-yard kickoff return TD on the opening play. Game over before it started.
- Kenneth Walker III: 116 rushing yards, 3 TDs (tied Shaun Alexander's franchise playoff record)
- Sam Darnold: Efficient 12-of-17 for 124 yards, 1 TD to Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- 49ers' second-most lopsided playoff loss in franchise history (behind 49-3 to Giants in 1986)
- Brock Purdy: 15-of-27, 140 yards, 1 INT, 1 fumble lost against the "Dark Side" defense
The 49ers? Decimated. Missing All-Pros George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa. Christian McCaffrey left with a stinger. This was never a contest. It wasn't even competitive. Seattle's the clear NFC favorite now, and they'll host whoever survives today's Rams-Bears battle. A trip to the Super Bowl is on the line. The Seahawks look ready to take it.
Sunday, January 18, 2026
No. 5 Houston Texans at No. 2 New England Patriots
The line tells you everything. New England's a 3-point home favorite. The total? Bet down from 41.5 to 40.5. This is going to be a rock fight. The Texans know it. The Patriots know it. The market knows it. You should too.
Drake Maye's Wild Card coming-out party was something else. The rookie went 22-of-31 for 268 yards and added 66 rushing yards against the Chargers. Calm. Composed. Clutch. Now he's hosting his first playoff game at Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots have been absolutely dominant this season. He's ready for this moment.
Houston's C.J. Stroud has the experience edge. He led the Texans to a 30-6 destruction of Pittsburgh in the Wild Card, and this is his second consecutive playoff run. But here's the thing: Stroud's never won a playoff game on the road. He's 0-1 away from Houston in January. That matters.
The Patriots have covered in 12 of their last 15 games. That's an absurd clip. They've also covered -3 in four straight. Houston's 6-2 ATS in their last 8, and the UNDER's hit in 13 of their last 19. Two ATS monsters. But one has to lose. Someone's streak dies today.
Key Trends
- Patriots 12-3 ATS in last 15 games (+8.70 units)
- Texans UNDER 13-6 in last 19 games
- Texans 10-0 SU in last 10 games
- This total is the lowest on the Divisional Round board
The 40.5 total screams defense. Houston and New England each have pass rushers who can disrupt. Gillette in January isn't a scoring environment. Never has been. I expect this to be a grind, with the winner scoring in the low 20s. Maybe lower.
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 2 Chicago Bears
This is the game of the weekend. No question. The highest total on the board at 48.5 tells you everything you need to know. Both offenses can score. Neither defense has been dominant enough to stop it. But there's a wildcard that will change everything, and we need to discuss it right now because it fundamentally alters the entire betting landscape for this matchup.
Matthew Stafford's Throwing Hand
Stafford's nursing a sprained index finger on his throwing hand. In the Wild Card win, he completed just 24 of 42 passes (57.1%) for 304 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT. That completion percentage? Concerning. Very concerning. The line's moved from Rams -4.5 to -3.5. That's a full point of Stafford injury concern baked into the number.
Chicago's first home Divisional Round game in 15 years. Fifteen. Soldier Field will be absolutely electric. Ben Johnson brought his Lions offensive magic to the Windy City, and Caleb Williams has developed into the star everyone projected he'd become. The Bears came back from 18 points down in the Wild Card. They've got that clutch gene. Don't underestimate it.
The Rams have been road warriors. 6-4 ATS away from SoFi Stadium. But Chicago's 6-3 ATS at home, and they've got the crowd advantage in a January night game. The cold off Lake Michigan adds another variable. It tends to favor the home team. Always has.
The 48.5 total has gone OVER in 7 straight Rams games. Seven straight. That's not a coincidence, and the market is telling you something important about how both offenses are expected to perform. The market believes both offenses will operate regardless of defensive effort. If Stafford's healthy, expect a 31-28 type game. If he's compromised? Bears win outright. It's that simple.
Key Trends
- Rams 12-6 ATS this season, Bears 12-5-1 ATS
- OVER 7-0 in Rams' last 7 games
- Bears have covered in 6 of 8 home games
- Stafford injury has moved line a full point toward Chicago
The shootout narrative makes sense on paper. But I'm watching that Stafford injury closely. If reports before kickoff suggest he's limited, the Bears +3.5 becomes even more valuable. Chicago's earned the right to play at home. Don't dismiss them. They're dangerous.
AFC Championship Preview
The Broncos will host either Houston or New England next Sunday. Under normal circumstances? Massive advantage. Home-field. The altitude. One of the NFL's best defenses. But Jarrett Stidham changes everything. Everything.
If the Patriots win today, they'd travel to Denver as likely favorites despite being the lower seed. Drake Maye's shown he can handle big moments. The market would probably make that game a pick'em or slight Patriots favor. Imagine that. An away team favored against the No. 1 seed.
If the Texans win, the spread gets interesting. C.J. Stroud has the experience, and Houston's offense is more dynamic than New England's. But even then, the Broncos' defense at altitude is a problem. I'd expect Denver to be slight favorites, maybe -1 or -2, purely on home-field. The Stidham factor looms large.
NFC Championship Preview
Seattle's earned the right to host. The Seahawks demolished San Francisco. Absolutely demolished them. They'll have a week to rest and prepare. If the Bears upset the Rams tonight, we get Darnold vs. Williams in a battle of quarterbacks who've exceeded every expectation this season. That'd be must-watch television.
If the Rams advance, it's Stafford vs. Darnold in a rematch of NFC West rivals with a Super Bowl trip on the line. Seattle'd likely be favored in either scenario. Probably -3 to -4. The way they dismantled the 49ers? That was a statement. The whole league heard it.
The Bottom Line
Saturday rewrote the championship landscape. Completely. Denver lost their franchise quarterback at the worst possible moment. Seattle established themselves as the NFC's most complete team. Now Sunday determines who joins them in the final four. It's win or go home.
Watch the Stafford injury reports carefully. Fade the high-scoring expectations in New England. And remember: January football's about survival, not style points. The teams that execute in crucial moments advance. The ones that don't? They go home. That's the reality of playoff football.
Sources: CBS Sports, ESPN, Covers, FanDuel Research, Yahoo Sports