Friday night delivers one of college basketball's premier rivalries as #3 Michigan travels to East Lansing to face #7 Michigan State. Two top-10 teams, two elite defenses, and bragging rights on the line. This is what college hoops is all about. We've also got some solid mid-major action with VCU, Saint Louis, and Dayton in Atlantic 10 play.
8:00 PM ET | FOX | Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
This is the game of the night in college basketball, and it's not particularly close. The #3 Wolverines (19-1, 9-1 Big Ten) head to the Breslin Center to face the #7 Spartans (19-2, 9-1 Big Ten) in a matchup that could determine the Big Ten regular season title. Both teams are playing elite basketball, and the market has this essentially as a pick'em with Michigan getting the slightest edge.
The Wolverines are 4-0 against ranked opponents this season and an unblemished 5-0 on the road. That's remarkable for any team, but especially impressive for a program that's dealt with significant roster turnover. Michigan is second in the country in adjusted defense and their offense is clicking at 90.9 points per game, good for 9th in Division I. They're shooting 51.5% from the field and have the depth to wear opponents down.
Michigan has also shown they can win in hostile environments. Road games in the Big Ten are notoriously difficult, but the Wolverines haven't flinched. Their composure down the stretch in close games has been exemplary, and that experience matters in rivalry games.
The Spartans own the Breslin Center, going 11-1 at home this season. Tom Izzo's teams are always prepared for rivalry games, and Michigan State leads the nation in adjusted defense. That's not a typo. When both teams rank in the top two nationally in defensive efficiency, expect a rock fight.
More importantly, Michigan State has won the last FOUR meetings between these two programs, including convincing 75-62 and 79-62 victories last season. Whatever Michigan is doing, the Spartans have had the answer. Izzo knows how to game plan against this opponent, and the home crowd will be absolutely electric.
PPG: 90.9 (9th in D-I)
FG%: 51.5%
Adj. Defense: #2 nationally
Road Record: 5-0
ATS Record: 9-11-0
Opp PPG: 63.5 (7th in D-I)
Opp FG%: 38.9% (11th)
Adj. Defense: #1 nationally
Home Record: 11-1
ATS Record: 12-9-0
The Under has gone 30-9 in Michigan State's last 39 games (+20.10 Units / 47% ROI)
The last FOUR meetings between these teams have all gone UNDER the total
Michigan State has covered 7 of their last 10 Big Ten games
Michigan is 9-11 ATS overall this season despite their 19-1 record
Here's the thing: this total is screaming for the under. You have the #1 and #2 adjusted defenses in the country going at it, and the last four meetings between these teams have all gone under. Michigan State's 30-9 under record in their last 39 games is one of the most profitable trends in college basketball. The 146.5 number accounts for that, but it might still not be low enough.
Both coaches will slow this game down. Neither team wants to get into a track meet against an elite defense. Expect possessions to be valued, shot clocks to run deep, and free throws to be at a premium. This feels like a 68-64 type game, not a 78-72 shootout.
Michigan is the better team on paper, but that 1.5-point spread in the Breslin Center feels disrespectful to Izzo and the Spartans. Michigan State's home court advantage is real, their recent dominance in this series is real, and their defensive identity is perfect for grinding out a low-scoring victory. The under feels like the safest play on the board. If you're taking a side, Michigan State +1.5 at home has appeal given the four-game winning streak in the rivalry.
7:00 PM ET | FS1
Big East action from the Dunkin' Donuts Center, where Providence has been tough to beat. Villanova has been inconsistent this season but still has enough talent to be dangerous. The Wildcats' perimeter shooting can get hot in a hurry, and when they're making threes, they can hang with anyone.
Providence plays physical, grinding basketball that can frustrate more talented opponents. The Friars protect their home court and won't be intimidated by Villanova's pedigree. This feels like a game that stays close throughout, with the home team having a slight edge in a rock fight.
8:00 PM ET | CBSSN
Atlantic 10 matchup with Saint Louis as heavy road favorites in Dayton. That spread is massive for a conference road game, suggesting the Billikens are clearly the better team. Saint Louis has been one of the A-10's best this season, while Dayton has struggled to find consistency.
The Chaifetz Arena crowd won't help here since this is in Dayton, but the Flyers' arena isn't what it used to be either. Saint Louis should control this game, but 9.5 points is a lot to lay on the road in conference play. The over/under at 145.5 suggests a moderate pace.
9:00 PM ET | ESPN2
This spread is absurd. VCU laying 18.5 points at home against Loyola Chicago is the type of number you see in non-conference buy games, not against a fellow mid-major. The Rams must be absolutely rolling, and Loyola must be struggling mightily for this line to exist.
VCU's Havoc defense is notoriously difficult for opponents to handle, and the Siegel Center is one of the toughest environments in mid-major basketball. Loyola will likely be rattled early and struggle to find any offensive rhythm. The question is whether VCU can maintain intensity with such a large lead, or if they'll let off the gas in the second half.