NBA Betting Analysis - January 31, 2026

Saturday, January 31, 2026 | Sports Betting Prime | 6-Game Slate

Saturday's NBA slate features six games with some compelling betting angles. The Spurs look to extend their dominance against Charlotte, while Houston hosts a struggling Dallas squad. Minnesota travels to Memphis as heavy favorites, and Philly welcomes the rebuilding Pelicans. Let's break down where the value lies.

San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets

12:00 PM ET | Spectrum Center | Prime Video

SpreadSAS -4
TotalO/U 224.5
MoneylineSAS -175 / CHA +150

The Spurs (32-15) roll into Charlotte riding one of the best stretches in the league. San Antonio's backcourt has been absolutely phenomenal, with Victor Wembanyama creating matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. The Spurs rank fourth in defensive rating and their guards are averaging elite efficiency numbers across the board.

Charlotte (21-28) has actually been playing well lately with a five-game win streak, but the level of competition matters. The Hornets are just 11-16 at home this season and struggle mightily against elite defenses. LaMelo Ball will get his looks, but the Spurs length and rim protection should contain Charlotte's attack.

The Spurs are 12-4 ATS as road favorites this season. Charlotte is 6-12 ATS as home underdogs.

San Antonio's pace of play (18th in the league) should keep this one in the low 220s. The total feels about right, but the spread is where the value lives. Trust the Spurs to cover.

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

7:00 PM ET | Gainbridge Fieldhouse

SpreadATL -1.5
TotalO/U 232.5
MoneylineATL -125 / IND +105

The Hawks (24-26) head to Indianapolis as slight road favorites against an Indiana team that's been decimated by injuries. The Pacers (12-36) are without Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles issues) for extended periods, and this roster simply lacks the firepower to compete with Atlanta's offense.

Trae Young continues to operate as one of the league's elite playmakers, and the Hawks rank 8th in offensive rating. Indiana ranks dead last in defensive efficiency and allows the 3rd most points per game in the NBA. This matchup screams points.

The over is 7-3 in Indiana's last 10 home games. Atlanta averages 119.2 PPG on the road.

The 232.5 total looks low given these two defenses. The Pacers play at the league's fastest pace but can't get stops. Atlanta should cruise, but the over is the sharper play.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers

7:30 PM ET | Wells Fargo Center

SpreadPHI -8.5
TotalO/U 231.5
MoneylinePHI -380 / NOP +295

Philadelphia (26-21) gets a favorable home matchup against the struggling Pelicans (13-37). New Orleans has been in full tank mode with multiple key players sidelined, and they're 4-18 on the road this season. This is a mismatch on paper.

Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey have found their rhythm together, and Philly is 17-8 at home this season. The Sixers rank 6th in home offensive rating and should exploit New Orleans' 28th-ranked road defense.

Philadelphia is 14-5 ATS as home favorites of 7+ points. The Pelicans are 2-11 ATS as road underdogs of 7+.

The 8.5-point spread looks big, but the Pelicans have been getting blown out regularly. Philly covers here.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies

8:00 PM ET | FedExForum

SpreadMIN -7.5
TotalO/U 229.5
MoneylineMIN -300 / MEM +240

The Timberwolves (30-19) are rolling, ranking fifth in scoring at 119.0 PPG while also defending at an elite level. Anthony Edwards has taken his game to MVP-caliber heights, and this Minnesota squad is built for the postseason.

Memphis (18-27) has been inconsistent all year, though Ja Morant can explode on any given night. The Grizzlies are just 10-15 at home and struggle against top-10 defenses. Minnesota's length and defensive versatility should bother Memphis's guards.

Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Memphis is 3-8 ATS as home underdogs.

The 7.5-point spread is steep on the road, but Minnesota has been dominant. The Wolves cover if they don't take their foot off the gas.

Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

8:00 PM ET | United Center

SpreadMIA -6.5
TotalO/U 222.5
MoneylineMIA -250 / CHI +200

Miami (26-23) visits a Bulls team (23-25) that's lost three straight and looks lost without direction. The Heat are looking to solidify playoff positioning and have been playing better ball over the past two weeks.

Chicago's offense has been stagnant, and without Zach LaVine (traded to Sacramento last February), this roster lacks consistent shot creation. Coby White has been solid but can't carry the load alone. Miami's defense travels well.

The Heat are 9-4 ATS as road favorites this season. Chicago is 4-9 ATS during their current losing stretch.

Miami should handle business here. The 6.5-point spread is fair, and the under looks appealing given both teams' defensive tendencies lately.

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

8:30 PM ET | Toyota Center | ABC

SpreadHOU -9
TotalO/U 228.5
MoneylineHOU -400 / DAL +310

The marquee matchup of Saturday's slate features the Houston Rockets hosting the struggling Mavericks. Houston has been one of the league's best stories, with their dynamic offense powered by Jalen Green. The Rockets are one of the league's most exciting young teams.

Dallas (15-32) is a shell of itself this season. The Mavericks have dealt with significant injuries, and their roster lacks consistent scoring options. Cooper Flagg (the #1 overall pick) has shown flashes but is still developing. The Mavericks rank 26th in offensive efficiency and 28th defensively.

Houston is 22-24 ATS but 18-5 SU at home. Dallas is 4-16 on the road this season.

The Rockets should dominate this one. Houston's crowd will be electric for this ABC primetime matchup. The 9-point spread is large, but Dallas has been getting destroyed on the road. Rockets cover.