We're down to the final four, and the Championship Round is setting up to be one of the most compelling betting slates in recent memory. A historic Patriots turnaround collides with an injured Broncos team, while two NFC West rivals who couldn't separate in the regular season battle for the right to host Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium.
Let's break down both matchups from a betting perspective.
The Patriots are coming off what might be the greatest single-season turnaround in NFL history. After going 4-13 in 2024, New England finished 14-3 this season, a +10 win improvement that ties the all-time record. The arrival of Mike Vrabel as head coach and the emergence of Drake Maye as an MVP candidate transformed this franchise overnight.
The Broncos will be without starting quarterback Bo Nix, who suffered an ankle injury late in their Divisional Round victory over Buffalo. This is a massive blow to Denver's championship hopes and significantly impacts the betting landscape for this game.
Patriots: Historic 10-win improvement
Underdogs: 4-2 ATS Wild Card Weekend
Drake Maye: MVP candidate, elite postseason passer rating
The Nix injury changes everything here. Denver's defense has been stellar all season, but asking a backup quarterback to manage a Championship game against a Patriots team playing with house money is a tall order. The public will likely still back Denver at home, but sharp money should be watching the Patriots line closely.
Watch for line movement as injury updates come in. If Nix is definitively ruled out and the line hasn't adjusted significantly, there may be value on New England.
These NFC West rivals met twice during the regular season, and the two games were decided by a combined three points. One went to overtime. You couldn't write a more dramatic script for a Championship game.
The Seahawks enter as Super Bowl favorites, with the shortest odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Rams have the second-shortest odds, meaning the winner of this game will likely be the opening line favorite for Super Bowl LX.
Seahawks: Super Bowl favorites
Rams: Second-shortest SB odds
Regular Season: 1-1, combined 3-point margin
Rams: Won last 4 trips to Chicago (playoff experience)
With two games that could have gone either way during the regular season, this feels like a coin flip on the field. The Seahawks have home field advantage, which matters in the playoffs, but the Rams have proven they can win in hostile environments.
The total is where I'm looking most closely here. Two defenses that know each other intimately, playoff intensity, and potentially nasty Pacific Northwest weather could push this under. Both teams have shown they can win low-scoring affairs.
If you're looking for market inefficiency signals, Wild Card Weekend provided some interesting data:
Underdogs: 4-2 ATS
Only ATS Loss that Won Outright: Rams (4.5-point favorites)
The market has consistently undervalued underdogs in this postseason. That's worth noting as we assess the Championship Round, where home teams will likely be favored but road teams have been covering.
The winners of these games will meet at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara on February 8th. Current Super Bowl odds show the Seahawks as favorites, but if the Patriots upset the Broncos with their backup quarterback, we could see a significant shift in the futures market.
The Patriots' story is compelling from a narrative standpoint. A team that was 4-13 last year potentially playing in the Super Bowl? That's the kind of storyline that moves betting lines and captures public imagination.
The AFC Championship hinges almost entirely on the Nix injury. If he's out, the Patriots represent significant value on the road against a Denver team that will be one-dimensional.
The NFC Championship is a pick'em in everything but name. Look to the total for potential value, as these divisional rivals have shown they know how to slow each other down.
Remember: the market has undervalued underdogs all postseason. Don't be afraid to take points.