Houston Texans
Houston Texans
12-5
@
New England Patriots
14-3
New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan 18 | 08:00 PM ET | Gillette Stadium | ESPN
SpreadNE -11.5
TotalO/U 44.5
MLNE TBD

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

This is one of my favorite spots. Houston Texans (12-5) heads to Gillette Stadium to take on New England Patriots (14-3) in what shapes up as a pivotal Week 16 matchup. The books have New England Patriots as 11.5-point favorites, which is a massive number in the NFL. But look at the records - there's a reason for it.

I keep coming back to The yardage tells a story - New England Patriots gains 322 per game while Houston Texans sits at 366. When you factor in defensive efficiency, Houston Texans has the edge. The total of 44.5 looks low. These teams are combining for 49.6 PPG.

look, ATS records matter. New England Patriots at 7-4 against the spread. Houston Texans is 6-7. The value is clear. I like this a lot.

Home Field
New England Patriots is 6-1 at home this season
Records
New England Patriots: 14-3 | Houston Texans: 12-5
Scoring Defense
New England Patriots allows 19.7 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened New England Patriots -11.5, sharp action noted
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams
12-5
@
Chicago Bears
11-6
Chicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 18 | 11:30 PM ET | Soldier Field | NBC
SpreadCHI +3.5
TotalO/U 49.5
MLCHI +170

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

Let me break this down. The NFL Week 16 slate features Los Angeles Rams (12-5) traveling to Soldier Field where Chicago Bears (11-6) waits. This game matters. Chicago Bears as a home dog at +3.5? That immediately catches my eye. The market is telling us something.

Now, The yardage tells a story - Chicago Bears gains 339 per game while Los Angeles Rams sits at 357. When you factor in defensive efficiency, Los Angeles Rams has the edge. At 49.5, this total is inflated. Combined they're scoring 43.7 PPG.

truth is, ATS records matter. Chicago Bears at 8-4 against the spread. Los Angeles Rams is 7-4. The value is clear. The numbers support it.

Home Field
Chicago Bears is 5-1 at home this season
Records
Chicago Bears: 11-6 | Los Angeles Rams: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Chicago Bears allows 22.9 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Chicago Bears +3.5, sharp action noted
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
12-5
@
Denver Broncos
14-3
Denver Broncos
Saturday, Jan 17 | 09:30 PM ET | Empower Field at Mile High | CBS
SpreadDEN +4.5
TotalO/U 41.5
MLDEN +205

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

I'm not going to pretend this isn't important. I've been breaking down the Buffalo Bills-Denver Broncos matchup all week. Buffalo Bills sits at 12-5 while Denver Broncos is 14-3 heading into this crucial contest. Denver Broncos as a home dog at +4.5? That immediately catches my eye. The market is telling us something.

What really matters is The yardage tells a story - Denver Broncos gains 346 per game while Buffalo Bills sits at 360. When you factor in defensive efficiency, Buffalo Bills has the edge.

I mean, Denver Broncos is 5-6 ATS this season and 4-2 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. I'm backing this hard.

Home Field
Denver Broncos is 4-3 at home this season
Records
Denver Broncos: 14-3 | Buffalo Bills: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Denver Broncos allows 21.1 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Denver Broncos +4.5, sharp action noted
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
12-5
@
Seattle Seahawks
14-3
Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, Jan 18 | 01:00 AM ET | Lumen Field | FOX

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Pay attention to this one. The NFL Week 16 slate features San Francisco 49ers (12-5) traveling to Lumen Field where Seattle Seahawks (14-3) waits. This game matters.

Here's the kicker: Seattle Seahawks is averaging 24.0 points per game with a defense allowing 21.2 PPG. San Francisco 49ers counters with 21.4 PPG and a 26.0 PPG defensive mark.

at the end of the day, The betting trends are clear: Seattle Seahawks covers consistently (5-7 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. Give me this side all day.

Home Field
Seattle Seahawks is 4-3 at home this season
Records
Seattle Seahawks: 14-3 | San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
Scoring Defense
Seattle Seahawks allows 19.0 PPG (Top 15)
Line Movement
Opened Seattle Seahawks , sharp action noted