Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns
24-15
@
Miami Heat
20-19
Miami Heat
Wednesday, Jan 14 | 12:30 AM ET | Kaseya Center | FanDuel SN Sun
SpreadMIA -1.5
TotalO/U 230.5
MLMIA -124

Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat

The sharps are all over this. Tonight's Phoenix Suns-Miami Heat game is one I've circled. Records of 24-15 and 20-19 tell part of the story, but not all of it. The line of Miami Heat -1.5 is where I'm focusing.

I keep coming back to The offensive numbers: Miami Heat at 113.2 PPG, Phoenix Suns at 109.8. Factor in pace (97.7 vs 99.4) and you see where this is heading.

bottom line: The betting trends are clear: Miami Heat covers consistently (7-5 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. Don't miss this spot.

Home Field
Miami Heat is 7-3 at home this season
Records
Miami Heat: 20-19 | Phoenix Suns: 24-15
Offensive Rating
Miami Heat: 112.5 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Miami Heat -1.5, sharp action noted
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
18-20
@
Houston Rockets
22-14
Houston Rockets
Wednesday, Jan 14 | 01:00 AM ET | Toyota Center (Houston) | CHSN
SpreadHOU -13.0
TotalO/U 224.5
MLHOU -590

Chicago Bulls vs Houston Rockets

Everyone's sleeping on this. Let's break down Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets. At 18-20 versus 22-14, these teams are heading in different directions. The line of Houston Rockets -13.0 is where I'm focusing.

The numbers tell us The offensive numbers: Houston Rockets at 113.9 PPG, Chicago Bulls at 113.5. Factor in pace (97.6 vs 102.3) and you see where this is heading.

honestly, ATS records matter. Houston Rockets at 5-7 against the spread. Chicago Bulls is 4-8. The value is clear. The value is clear.

Home Field
Houston Rockets is 6-2 at home this season
Records
Houston Rockets: 22-14 | Chicago Bulls: 18-20
Offensive Rating
Houston Rockets: 117.1 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Houston Rockets -13.0, sharp action noted
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
26-14
@
Milwaukee Bucks
17-22
Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, Jan 14 | 01:00 AM ET | Fiserv Forum | FanDuel SN WI
SpreadMIL -2.5
TotalO/U 228.5
MLMIL -142

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Milwaukee Bucks

I love this spot. Tonight's Minnesota Timberwolves-Milwaukee Bucks game is one I've circled. Records of 26-14 and 17-22 tell part of the story, but not all of it. The line of Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 is where I'm focusing.

And look, The offensive numbers: Milwaukee Bucks at 115.5 PPG, Minnesota Timberwolves at 112.9. Factor in pace (99.2 vs 100.4) and you see where this is heading.

honestly, The betting trends are clear: Milwaukee Bucks covers consistently (7-4 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. Give me this side all day.

Home Field
Milwaukee Bucks is 6-1 at home this season
Records
Milwaukee Bucks: 17-22 | Minnesota Timberwolves: 26-14
Offensive Rating
Milwaukee Bucks: 113.6 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Milwaukee Bucks -2.5, sharp action noted
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets
26-13
@
New Orleans Pelicans
9-32
New Orleans Pelicans
Wednesday, Jan 14 | 01:00 AM ET | Smoothie King Center | GCSEN
SpreadNO +1.5
TotalO/U 233.5
MLNO +104

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans

This line doesn't make sense. Tonight's Denver Nuggets-New Orleans Pelicans game is one I've circled. Records of 26-13 and 9-32 tell part of the story, but not all of it. The line of New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 is where I'm focusing.

The numbers tell us Pace tells the story - New Orleans Pelicans plays at 99.5 while Denver Nuggets runs at 100.8. That pace difference will impact the total.

simply put, ATS records matter. New Orleans Pelicans at 8-7 against the spread. Denver Nuggets is 8-7. The value is clear. The value is clear.

Home Field
New Orleans Pelicans is 5-3 at home this season
Records
New Orleans Pelicans: 9-32 | Denver Nuggets: 26-13
Offensive Rating
New Orleans Pelicans: 115.4 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened New Orleans Pelicans +1.5, sharp action noted
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
27-12
@
Oklahoma City Thunder
33-7
Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, Jan 14 | 01:00 AM ET | Paycom Center | NBC
SpreadOKC -8.5
TotalO/U 229.5
MLOKC -330

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Let's talk about what matters here. Let's break down San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder. At 27-12 versus 33-7, these teams are heading in different directions. The line of Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 is where I'm focusing.

What really matters is Pace tells the story - Oklahoma City Thunder plays at 97.6 while San Antonio Spurs runs at 97.0. That pace difference will impact the total.

I mean, Oklahoma City Thunder is 7-5 ATS this season and 4-1 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. Don't miss this spot.

Home Field
Oklahoma City Thunder is 5-1 at home this season
Records
Oklahoma City Thunder: 33-7 | San Antonio Spurs: 27-12
Offensive Rating
Oklahoma City Thunder: 114.8 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5, sharp action noted
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
20-21
@
Los Angeles Lakers
23-14
Los Angeles Lakers
Wednesday, Jan 14 | 03:30 AM ET | crypto.com Arena | Spectrum Sports Net
SpreadLAL +3.0
TotalO/U 231.5
MLLAL +128

Atlanta Hawks vs Los Angeles Lakers

The value here is obvious. The Association delivers another loaded slate, and Atlanta Hawks (20-21) visiting Los Angeles Lakers (23-14) stands out. The line of Los Angeles Lakers +3.0 is where I'm focusing.

Don't forget - The offensive numbers: Los Angeles Lakers at 111.3 PPG, Atlanta Hawks at 118.3. Factor in pace (102.4 vs 97.4) and you see where this is heading.

at the end of the day, ATS records matter. Los Angeles Lakers at 8-7 against the spread. Atlanta Hawks is 6-6. The value is clear. This is a gift from the market.

Home Field
Los Angeles Lakers is 7-1 at home this season
Records
Los Angeles Lakers: 23-14 | Atlanta Hawks: 20-21
Offensive Rating
Los Angeles Lakers: 116.5 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Los Angeles Lakers +3.0, sharp action noted
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
19-21
@
Golden State Warriors
21-19
Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, Jan 14 | 04:00 AM ET | Chase Center | NBC
SpreadGS -10.5
TotalO/U 226.5
MLGS -460

Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors

Let me be real - NBA scheduling is everything, and this Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors matchup has some interesting angles. Portland Trail Blazers is 19-21 on the year while Golden State Warriors sits at 21-19. The line of Golden State Warriors -10.5 is where I'm focusing.

Here's the kicker: Golden State Warriors is putting up 117.2 PPG at home. Portland Trail Blazers scores 117.3 on the road. Home/road splits are real in the NBA.

realistically, The betting trends are clear: Golden State Warriors covers consistently (8-7 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. I'm backing this hard.

Home Field
Golden State Warriors is 5-3 at home this season
Records
Golden State Warriors: 21-19 | Portland Trail Blazers: 19-21
Offensive Rating
Golden State Warriors: 116.5 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Golden State Warriors -10.5, sharp action noted