Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
21-13
@
Miami Heat
19-15
Miami Heat
Saturday, Jan 03 | 10:00 PM ET | Kaseya Center | FanDuel SN Sun

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat

Here's what the market is missing: Tonight's Minnesota Timberwolves-Miami Heat game is one I've circled. Records of 21-13 and 19-15 tell part of the story, but not all of it.

And look, Pace tells the story - Miami Heat plays at 102.0 while Minnesota Timberwolves runs at 102.5. That pace difference will impact the total.

realistically, The betting trends are clear: Miami Heat covers consistently (7-6 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. The value is clear.

Home Field
Miami Heat is 7-1 at home this season
Records
Miami Heat: 19-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves: 21-13
Offensive Rating
Miami Heat: 114.8 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Miami Heat , sharp action noted
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
18-14
@
New York Knicks
23-11
New York Knicks
Sunday, Jan 04 | 12:30 AM ET | Madison Square Garden | MSG

Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks

I've crunched the numbers. Tonight's Philadelphia 76ers-New York Knicks game is one I've circled. Records of 18-14 and 23-11 tell part of the story, but not all of it.

On top of that, Pace tells the story - New York Knicks plays at 98.7 while Philadelphia 76ers runs at 99.3. That pace difference will impact the total.

straight up, ATS records matter. New York Knicks at 6-4 against the spread. Philadelphia 76ers is 5-4. The value is clear. Don't miss this spot.

Home Field
New York Knicks is 6-2 at home this season
Records
New York Knicks: 23-11 | Philadelphia 76ers: 18-14
Offensive Rating
New York Knicks: 115.2 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened New York Knicks , sharp action noted
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
17-19
@
Toronto Raptors
20-15
Toronto Raptors
Sunday, Jan 04 | 12:30 AM ET | Scotiabank Arena | FanDuel SN SE

Atlanta Hawks vs Toronto Raptors

Sometimes the obvious play is right. Let's break down Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors. At 17-19 versus 20-15, these teams are heading in different directions.

Here's where it gets interesting: Pace tells the story - Toronto Raptors plays at 102.2 while Atlanta Hawks runs at 97.7. That pace difference will impact the total.

here's the deal: The betting trends are clear: Toronto Raptors covers consistently (6-4 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. Let's ride.

Home Field
Toronto Raptors is 5-1 at home this season
Records
Toronto Raptors: 20-15 | Atlanta Hawks: 17-19
Offensive Rating
Toronto Raptors: 112.4 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Toronto Raptors , sharp action noted
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
11-23
@
Chicago Bulls
17-17
Chicago Bulls
Sunday, Jan 04 | 01:00 AM ET | United Center | CHSN+

Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls

I'm not going to pretend this isn't important. Let's break down Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls. At 11-23 versus 17-17, these teams are heading in different directions.

Factor this in: Pace tells the story - Chicago Bulls plays at 100.9 while Charlotte Hornets runs at 102.4. That pace difference will impact the total.

honestly, ATS records matter. Chicago Bulls at 6-3 against the spread. Charlotte Hornets is 7-4. The value is clear. Don't miss this spot.

Home Field
Chicago Bulls is 5-2 at home this season
Records
Chicago Bulls: 17-17 | Charlotte Hornets: 11-23
Offensive Rating
Chicago Bulls: 112.4 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Chicago Bulls , sharp action noted
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
15-20
@
San Antonio Spurs
25-9
San Antonio Spurs
Sunday, Jan 04 | 01:00 AM ET | Frost Bank Center | KUNP 16

Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs

The value here is obvious. The Association delivers another loaded slate, and Portland Trail Blazers (15-20) visiting San Antonio Spurs (25-9) stands out.

I keep coming back to San Antonio Spurs is putting up 113.7 PPG at home. Portland Trail Blazers scores 113.0 on the road. Home/road splits are real in the NBA.

let's be honest, The betting trends are clear: San Antonio Spurs covers consistently (5-4 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. This is the play.

Home Field
San Antonio Spurs is 6-2 at home this season
Records
San Antonio Spurs: 25-9 | Portland Trail Blazers: 15-20
Offensive Rating
San Antonio Spurs: 115.5 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened San Antonio Spurs , sharp action noted
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
21-10
@
Dallas Mavericks
12-23
Dallas Mavericks
Sunday, Jan 04 | 01:30 AM ET | American Airlines Center | Space City Home Network

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks

Don't overthink this. Tonight's Houston Rockets-Dallas Mavericks game is one I've circled. Records of 21-10 and 12-23 tell part of the story, but not all of it.

Here's the kicker: The offensive numbers: Dallas Mavericks at 117.9 PPG, Houston Rockets at 114.6. Factor in pace (98.7 vs 101.6) and you see where this is heading.

look, Dallas Mavericks is 8-3 ATS this season and 3-1 at home. That's not coincidence - sharp money follows trends like this. I'm confident here.

Home Field
Dallas Mavericks is 6-2 at home this season
Records
Dallas Mavericks: 12-23 | Houston Rockets: 21-10
Offensive Rating
Dallas Mavericks: 112.6 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Dallas Mavericks , sharp action noted
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
12-21
@
Golden State Warriors
18-17
Golden State Warriors
Sunday, Jan 04 | 03:00 AM ET | Chase Center | NBC Sports BA

Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors

I keep coming back to this game. Tonight's Utah Jazz-Golden State Warriors game is one I've circled. Records of 12-21 and 18-17 tell part of the story, but not all of it.

It's worth noting The offensive numbers: Golden State Warriors at 109.6 PPG, Utah Jazz at 115.8. Factor in pace (97.8 vs 100.8) and you see where this is heading.

at the end of the day, The betting trends are clear: Golden State Warriors covers consistently (6-6 ATS). When a team covers at this rate, there's a reason. Give me this side all day.

Home Field
Golden State Warriors is 7-3 at home this season
Records
Golden State Warriors: 18-17 | Utah Jazz: 12-21
Offensive Rating
Golden State Warriors: 117.4 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened Golden State Warriors , sharp action noted
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
21-12
@
LA Clippers
12-21
LA Clippers
Sunday, Jan 04 | 03:30 AM ET | Intuit Dome | NBA TV

Boston Celtics vs LA Clippers

This line doesn't make sense. Let's break down Boston Celtics at LA Clippers. At 21-12 versus 12-21, these teams are heading in different directions.

Factor this in: LA Clippers is putting up 109.4 PPG at home. Boston Celtics scores 119.4 on the road. Home/road splits are real in the NBA.

let's be honest, ATS records matter. LA Clippers at 5-3 against the spread. Boston Celtics is 6-8. The value is clear. I'm backing this hard.

Home Field
LA Clippers is 4-3 at home this season
Records
LA Clippers: 12-21 | Boston Celtics: 21-12
Offensive Rating
LA Clippers: 112.9 ORtg at home
Line Movement
Opened LA Clippers , sharp action noted