Halfway through the NBA season, the ATS trends are revealing some clear market inefficiencies. Some teams are flat-out printing money for bettors, while others have been public traps all season long. Here's your complete breakdown of who to back and who to fade.
Portland has been the most profitable team in the league for ATS bettors recently, and it's not close. They're on an 8-2 SU run and covering at an absurd rate at home.
The forward has quietly developed into one of the league's best all-around players:
Avdija has scored 25+ in six of seven games in 2026. When he's cooking, the Blazers are covering.
Phoenix has been on a tear against the spread, covering at an 83% clip over their last 18 games. The market has consistently undervalued them, and sharps have taken notice. When Phoenix is getting points, they're covering. When they're laying points at home, they're covering. Just back the Suns.
The defending champions have won 8 of their last 9 games outright and are covering at an 80% rate recently. Even without Jayson Tatum at full health, this team knows how to grind out covers.
The defending champions are absolutely rolling. At 36-8, they have the best record in the NBA and have been covering at a high rate despite being heavy favorites in most games. When a team is this good, the market still can't price them high enough.
Houston has been a public trap all season. Despite some flashy wins, they're failing to cover at an alarming rate. The 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 is one of the worst stretches in the league. Until this turns around, fade the Rockets, especially as road favorites.
At 10-34 on the season, the Pacers are a disaster. But here's the brutal trend: they've lost 17 straight games when facing a team over .500 as an underdog. That's not a trend, that's a law of nature at this point. The Pacers cannot compete against good teams.
Similar story to Indiana. Memphis has lost 24 of 26 games when facing a team over .500 and getting points. When the Grizzlies are underdogs against a good team, just fade them. It's that simple.
New Orleans at Houston: The Pelicans have lost 12 straight road games vs teams over .500. Houston has failed to cover in 9 straight games vs Western Conference teams under .500. When two bad trends collide, the market often gets confused. Look for line value in these "trap vs trap" matchups.
Back: Portland at home, Phoenix in any spot, OKC even as heavy chalk, Boston on the road.
Fade: Houston in all spots until ATS improves, Indiana and Memphis as underdogs against good teams.
Watch: Denver as an underdog, currently on a 6-game cover streak in that role.
Remember: trends don't guarantee future results, but they reveal where the market is inefficient. Use them as one input among many.